On November 19, Viacom 18, the production mammoth backing Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s magnum opus Padmavati , released a statement that the period film’s release had been ‘voluntarily’ postponed to an undisclosed date. The announcement came weeks after seething protests by Rajasthan-based Shri Rajput Karni Sena. The political group claims to be offended by Bhansali’s depiction of Rani Padmini, which also includes a supposed love scene between Padmavati and the ruler of the Khilji dynasty, Alauddin Khilji. Bhansali and the stars of the film have all refuted these allegations.
The fracas has reached epic proportions, and now a bounty has been placed on on Bhansali and his star Deepika Padukone’s heads (and nose) protesting the release of the film.
Hard and fast rules
Simultaneously, the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) chief Prasoon Joshi announced that Bhansali’s film has been submitted with ‘incomplete formalities’ neglecting the 68-rule. Truth be told, so far films have been applying for certification approximately a month before release dates. Now reports suggest the 68-day submission rule might claim another prey. Rumours are rife that it might be a spanner in the works for another big release this year. Tiger Zinda Hai was earlier slated to release on December 22, but in light of the current certification climate, the Salman Khan film will be postponed as well. “There’s nothing that I know except that [ Tiger Zinda Hai ] is releasing,” says Shailesh Kapoor of Ormax Media, a firm specialising in trade insights adding that the Chinese whispers are simply just that. Box office analyst, Girish Johar agrees saying there’s no official confirmation as yet and publicity for the film (which includes the launch of the new song ‘Swag Se Swagat’ that released on Tuesday) is completely on track.
Only this time, DC’s Justice League took away a substantial number of urban audiences from Vidya Balan’s film
With two of the biggest films of the year in limbo, 2017’s abysmal performance at the box office just took another hard punch. “[The box office earnings] would be lower than last year if Padmavati releases next year. There will be a de-growth over 2016” says Kapoor “One doesn’t count Baahubali in this.” The meagre collections are a result of a poor first half with very few hits and consecutive disappointments, despite the success of films like Golmaal Again (₹197.86 crore net), Judwaa 2 (₹132.35 crore net) and Toilet: Ek Prem Katha (₹132.07 crore net). The biggest let-downs came from the biggest stars: Kangana Ranut’s Rangoon (Rs 20.87 crore net) and Simran (₹14.88 crore net); Salman Khan’s Tubelight (₹114 crore net); Amitabh Bachchan’s Sarkar 3 (₹9.96 crore net); Shah Rukh Khan’s Jab Harry Met Sejal (₹62 crore net). They collectively rained on this year’s box office parade. According to trade experts like Kapoor, the box office has been suffering a slump with decreasing numbers since 2014.
Each year, collections have consistently been falling by 2 to 3%. But 2017’s projections are steeper: with a drop to 5 to 10%. Analysts quantify the loss to be anywhere between a whopping ₹200 to ₹500 crore net.
Size notwithstanding
In addition to consecutive flops in 2017, Padmavati and Tiger Zinda Hai ’s deferment follows a slew of tepid medium budget releases. For instance The Friday before last saw two romcoms with Rajkummar Rao’s Shaadi Mein Zaroor Aana (Rs 8.72 net with approximately 800 screens) and Irrfan Khan’s Qarib Qarib Singlle (Rs 11.78 crore net with approximately 1,100 screens).
Only this time, DC’s Justice League took away a substantial number of urban audiences from Vidya Balan’s film
“Both Newton and Hindi Medium had social messages and they were covering more topical issues,” says Kapoor about Rao and Khan’s previous medium-budget outings. “That works with bigger city audiences and since they’re not stars, audiences don’t really want to watch them in romcoms either.” Plus, both films catered to a similar target audience, that is urban multiplexes, eating into each other’s profits.
With last Friday’s metro-skewed Tumhari Sulu , the cycle repeated all over again. Only this time, DC’s Justice League took away a substantial number of urban audiences from Vidya Balan’s film. Since Golmaal Returns was petering out of theatres, Tumhari Sulu managed to get up to seven shows per theatre, spreading to almost 1200 screens.
The conducive circumstances have helped the film make Rs 14.90 crore net as of Tuesday and it’s predicted to end its theatrical run between ₹20 crore and ₹30 crore.
*All figures courtesy Box Office India
