One factor common to elections in States such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, in comparison to other States, is the conduct of such polls in drawn-out phases.
West Bengal, for example, had five poll phases in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections spread out between April 17 and May 12 in 2014.
This year too, elections in West Bengal are being conducted in six phases (technically seven as Phase 1 has been held as Phase 1A on April 4 and Phase 1B on April 11) ending on May 5, effectively spread out for more than a month.
The neighbouring Bihar went to the polls in five phases from October 12 to November 5 in 2015.
Law and order The Election Commission conducts elections over these long-drawn-out phases to provide adequate security and ensure law and order as poll violence had been a norm in these States in the past. While this is understandable, a question can be raised about the impact of the conduct of polls over several phases on the actual election result.
Is there a momentum that gathers over time favouring a particular political party or alliance if elections are conducted in this fashion? Does spreading the schedule out also favour only those parties which are adequately resource-rich and thus can conduct long-duration campaigns?
Creating momentum These are valid questions. As regards the second question, it is almost impossible for a new party or a fledgling political outfit to match the energy and planning that is required for campaigning for over a month.
Only established political forces can manage that. In the case of West Bengal, the maturation of the political contest between three forces — the ruling Trinamool Congress (AITC), the Left-Congress jot (alliance) and the Bharatiya Janata Party — is clearly visible with other political forces being sidelined.
But has there been a snowballing effect of momentum towards or against a political party/alliance in West Bengal? It is difficult to answer this. Anecdotally, there is evidence from reports in West Bengal that the Left-Congress jot has been increasingly confident in its performance since the first phase of polling began in the State and over the past month.
Evidence on the “snowballing” effect can be gleaned from three elections for both analytical and comparative purposes — the 2011 Assembly elections (held in six phases) and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (held in five phases) in West Bengal and the 2015 Assembly polls in Bihar (held in five phases).
The various phases are held in contiguous constituencies which constitute particular regions in the States.
In West Bengal, the Congress is particularly strong in Malda and Murshidabad districts and the Gorkhaland parties only in the Darjeeling areas, while the Trinamool and the Left Front have support spread across the States with minor variations.
Does it tally? Phase-wise results in 2011 in West Bengal suggest that the later phases showed a higher percentage of votes tallied in favour of the Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance as opposed to the Left Front whose vote share was relatively constant. The ultimate winner won more in the later phases.
In 2014, on the other hand, when the Trinamool, the BJP, the Left Front and the Congress contested separately, the later phases polled more heavily for the Trinamool even considering areas where support bases were concentrated for parties such as the Congress.
The snowballing effect was visible here too.
Bihar story In 2015 in Bihar, the BJP adopted a malleable campaign strategy that varied from phase to phase.
The effect was an improved vote tally for the BJP in comparison to the Mahagatbandan (MGB or grand coalition) of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (U) and the Congress. But by the final phase, the grand coalition tallied a higher share than in the earlier phases, indicating a snowballing effect.
From the evidence of these three elections, one can certainly say that holding elections over several phases has helped consolidate a particular trend benefiting one party/alliance in both 2011 and 2014.
The Left-Congress jot will be encouraged by this trend.
It explains why it is finding increasing winds behind its sails.
