Providence. Most Congress workers in Tamil Nadu will tell you it is the only reason for a dramatic shift in the party’s fortunes over the past six months in the State. From total isolation during the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the party is back in the reckoning. An alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has provided a new lease of life. The party will now survive, cadres say with jubilance.
After 1977, except in 1989, the political script of the Congress in the Dravidian heartland has been largely monotonous. The party has allied with either the DMK or the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the Assembly elections and had cemented its place as the third largest force in the State. The front with the Congress had an advantage. This was for long political common sense in a territory where voters alternated between the two Dravidian majors with consistency. This assumption was slightly shaken in 2005 with the emergence of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, led by actor Vijayakant. Yet, the Congress managed to retain its place as a crucial ally for a few more years.
The conclusion of the civil war in Sri Lanka in 2009 though began changing its fate. The party, which led the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, was accused of “aiding” the “massacre” in the island nation. Tamil nationalist forces launched a concerted campaign against it. The AIADMK too joined the chorus. But it was the DMK’s decision to snap ties, dubbing the party “anti-Tamil”, in 2013 that hurt the Congress the most and turned it instantaneously into a political untouchable. Left alone, the party lost deposits in 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats it contested in 2014.
Further weakening its organisation was a split in its ranks in November 2014. The faction led by former Union Minister G.K. Vasan walked out. The idea behind the split was simple. Since the Sri Lankan issue had isolated the Congress, the faction felt the party would have no takers for the 2016 Assembly polls. Many former MPs and MLAs, who wanted to taste power yet again, felt continuing in the party was no longer tenable. Big aspirations forced many to hold hands with Mr. Vasan and ditch the Congress, in hopes that in their new avatar as the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), they could wipe the “stain” of being “anti-Tamil” and strike an alliance with either of the two Dravidian parties. Basically, as in 1996 when G.K. Moopanar launched the original TMC, they wanted to replace the Congress in the alliance equation.
But Mr. Vasan was no Moopanar. The script went awfully wrong for the TMC. While it tried hard to join forces with the AIADMK, the strategy failed. And with traditional allies such as the CPI, the CPI(M), the VCK, the MDMK and the PMK charting their own course, the DMK was under pressure and faced a dearth of allies. This emerging scene turned to the advantage of the Congress, which was the only substantial outfit willing to join hands with the DMK.
They struck a deal, though it meant many fewer seats than what the party got in 2011. On the other side, a dispute over election symbol stemmed a possible TMC-AIADMK tie-up. Poles suddenly shifted. It was now the TMC’s turn to stare at isolation, though it finally found refuge in the People’s Welfare Front.
Safe zoneSenior leaders in the Congress feel the party is now in a safe zone. With 41 seats in the DMK alliance, they now feel the party could yet again emerge with a substantial vote share, which dropped to below 5 per cent in the Lok Sabha election.
Congress spokesperson C.R. Kesavan, however, says lack of options was not the reason for the alliance with the DMK.
“Our alliance is an alliance of choice. It is not like the PWF where parties without options came together. Also, it was the DMK which invited us. This shows how our strength has improved since 2014. We have got the same number of seats the DMDK got in the AIADMK alliance in 2011,” he says. The alliance was also ideological as much as electoral. “This is a secular front,” he contends.
