In the past, law and order, and crime rate have rarely featured as an election issue in Bengaluru. This Assembly elections, however, is proving to be different.
The BJP — alleging that ‘lawlessness’ is a problem — has made it a poll plank through its ‘Bengaluru Rakshisi’ padayatra. This comes in the backdrop of the murder of two party workers — R. Rudresh in October 2016 and K. Santosh in January 2018 — followed by the attack on a diner in a cafe by Mohammed Nalapad in February 2018. Nalapad is the son of Congress MLA from Shanthinagar N.A. Haris.
Data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), too, shows that the rate of cognizable crimes in Bengaluru has increased during the Congress. But will the BJP's campaign on the increase in crime rate and alleged breakdown of law and order impact voting patterns?
The Karnataka Voter Survey–2018, conducted by DAKSH and ADR between December 2017 and February 2018 shows that ‘better law and order’ ranks only fifth in the priority list of Bengaluru’s voters. As per the survey, respondents in only Yeshwantpur, Basavanagudi, Bengaluru South, Yelahanka and R.R. Nagar constituencies rated better law and order as one of the top priorities.
The survey was conducted with a sample of 13,300 people in the age group of 18-45 across the State; 50 people in every constituency were surveyed.
It’s unlikely though that this particular poll platform of the BJP will swing votes, say analysts.
“If an issue has to swing votes in an election, there needs to be a differentiator between the parties over that issue. But in most problems that have emerged as top priorities for the common man, law and order included, the Congress, BJP and JD(S) have neither articulated a different vision nor can they show a different track record,” said Harish Narasappa, co-founder, DAKSH.
“The lack of a differentiator between parties will nullify the impact of the issue on voting patterns,” he argued. “The problem with the BJP campaign is that it is based on stray incidents like the Nalapad case, which even the BJP is not free of.”
Former Director General and Inspector General of Police S.T. Ramesh, who is now working on a community policing project in the city, had a different take. He is of the opinion that law and order, or the perception of it, does influence voting patterns. “In 1983-85, then chief minister Ramakrishna Hegde built a narrative around `chaku-choori culture of the Congress' and he was successful in convincing people. It yielded dividends,” he said. He was quick to add that a perception campaign cannot be divorced from ground reality, which he said did not warrant an alarmist campaign today.
Another retired officer, Gopal Hosur, begged to differ. He argued that in a perception battle over crime rate, the key is ‘perception of likelihood of being a victim of crime’, which is high today. He blamed the failure of the police leadership and political interference.
Police transfers
Many also raised the question of transfers. When the BJP was in power between 2008 and 2013, the city saw only two police commissioners. During the Congress tenure from 2013 to 2018, Bengaluru had six police chiefs.
According to D.S. Rajashekhar, president of Citizen Action Forum, an umbrella organisation of over 110 residents’ welfare associations in the city, law and order is unlikely to swing votes, as in people's perception it remains a bureaucratic issue, not linked to politics. “We have been demanding more boots on the ground, better policing and a responsive police force. But that is not a issue when you vote for an MLA, and no party is different in its approach to law and order,” he said.
The BJP remains confident that their law and order campaign will swing votes in their favour, a viewpoint that the Congress refutes.
