It’s 7.45 p.m. in Lanva village on the boundary of Mehsana and Patan districts in North Gujarat. More than 40,000 people have gathered at a rally and are waiting for 24-year-old Hardik Patel to address them. After a brief introduction, he begins his speech amid crowds chanting “Hardik, Hardik”.
He starts his speech asking, “Will you defeat the BJP?” and the crowd responds, “Yes, yes.”
In his 35-minute speech, Mr. Patel, who has emerged as a big challenger of the BJP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home State, explains the importance of the Assembly polls and why the BJP should be defeated, asking in the end to ensure that the ruling party, which committed atrocities on the Patidar community, does not get a single seat in Mehsana and Patan, two districts in North Gujarat where the voting will be held on December 14.
Patan has been a BJP bastion with the ruling party winning three of its four Assembly seats — Patan, Radhanpur, Sidhdhpur and Chanasma — in every election.
In the 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP won Patan, Radhanpur and Chanasma, while Sidhdhppur went to the Congress. But Congress legislator Balwantsinh joined the BJP in July this year and contested the Rajya Sabha election against Ahmed Patel.
However, the ruling party leaders appear unsure if their decade-old domination will continue this time. All the four seats in the district face a stiff contest, with all local dynamics and caste equations at full play.
“It’s not possible to make any prediction this time because of multiple factors working simultaneously,” Vishnubhai Patel, a senior BJP worker from Chanasma, told The Hindu .
“The biggest factor is Hardik.”
“In Mehsana and Patan, there are 11 Assembly seats out of which the BJP won only three in the 2012 Assembly polls but now we cannot say the same will be repeated this time,” said another local BJP leader.
This time, the Congress has fielded Kirit Patel in Patan. Mr. Kirit was the local convener of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti headed by Mr. Hardik, who is spearheading the quota agitation.
“This is the only district where the Hardik Patel factor and the Alpesh Thakor factor are working because Hardik’s close aide Kirit is contesting from Patan while Alpesh himself is Congress candidate from the Thakor-dominated Radhanpur seat,” said the former Patan MP Jagdish Thakor, a prominent Thakor community leader of the Congress.
Caste equations
In a bid to balance the caste equations, the Congress has fielded two Thakors from Radhanpur and Sidhdhpur, while it is one Patidar from Patan and one Rabari (OBC) candidate from Chanasma. The BJP has fielded Thakors in Radhanpur and Chanasma, while it has fielded one Brahmin from Sidhdhpur and Ranchhod Rabari, MLA, from Patan.
“In both Mehsana and Patan districts, the BJP will not get even two seats,” says Narendra Patel, a PAAS leader, who had earlier done a sting operation exposing a ₹10 lakh bribe he was offered to join the BJP.
