By stitching together a new social coalition, the Congress has moved out of its comfort zone of the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) vote on which it depended on during the earlier Gujarat elections, says a senior BJP leader pointing to a key difference in its strategy.
The induction of OBC leader Alpesh Thakore and the negotiations the party is holding with Patidar agitation chief Hardik Patel is new turn for the Congress, especially in the case of the Patel/Patidar community, which has traditionally supported the BJP.
A coalescing of anti-BJP forces makes arithmetical sense, but BJP leaders say the internal contradictions of such an alliance can fray it at the edges.
“A lot is being said about the Patidar vote that has traditionally gone with the BJP, now negotiating through Hardik Patel for a place in the Congress’s scheme of things. But the biggest victory ever posted by the Congress in Gujarat was the 149 seats won under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985, on top of the 141 seats he had won in the previous Assembly polls, with little Patidar support. They were completely out of the Congress system. This will be highlighted,” says a senior leader of the BJP involved with Gujarat polls.
“Alpesh Thakore’s OBC base is also inimical to Hardik Patel’s demand for OBC status for Patidars. Along with the Supreme Court’s ruling capping quotas at 50% anywhere, there is no elbow room for any political manoeuvring on the issue of offering quotas for Patels. These are the two reasons why the negotiation between Hardik Patel and the Congress is bumpy,” the source said. “This is, therefore, not an organic social coalition and will be problematic to pull off on the ground,” he says.
BJP leaders cite the 2012 polls when former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel floated the Gujarat Parivartan Party with a largely Patidar/Patel base, clocking only 3.7% of the vote and two seats in the Assembly but damaging the Congress in over a dozen seats. This may be the case with Hardik Patel too, they say.
Vaghela factor
An “X” factor in the mix is former Gujarat Chief Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela, who left the Congress recently and has floated his own outfit called the Jan Vikalp Party. The party will be contesting all 182 seats. Even the most optimistic supporter of Mr. Vaghela admits that the only seat the party is likely to win is the one contested by his son Mahendra Singh Vaghela, either from his old seat of Bayad or Gandhinagar (North), but adds that he could have an impact in at least 35 seats. “He is still the tallest Kshatriya leader in the State and in 35 seats at least, he will hurt the Congress,” a senior BJP leader says.
The building of a social coalition ahas created some buzz around the Congress campaign. A buzz that BJP leaders feel will dissipate on facing the hard reality of polling day considerations.
