Concerns over the impact of a deficit-monsoon in some parts of the country, on crop output, seem to be exaggerated, according to a research report prepared by the Yes Bank.
According to the report, even as there is disparity with respect to shortage in rainfall, states with excessive deficits are mainly the non-agriculture states, which have a negligible share in total food grain production (calculated as average share between 2010-14).
“As such, extreme deficit states such as Himachal and Kerala, along with some of the North-East States, will not have an adverse impact on overall food grain output,” the report said. The rainfall deficit in these states (as of September 15) varied between 20 and 43 per cent, the report noted. It added rains during August and September have a higher correlation with kharif output and this augurs well for overall agricultural output.
Four of the agriculture states, Assam, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana, have seen a deficit of over 15 per cent in the monsoon this season. Together they account for 22.8 per cent of food grain output.
In some of these states, sowing of crops such as oilseeds and coarse cereals were lower, but have been compensated for by higher sowing in others such as Haryana. The report noted “On a cumulative basis for the four states, acreage under sowing has improved.”Punjab and Haryana have about 90 per cent of the land under irrigation, enabling farmers to withstand the monsoon shortfall better, it said. The report also highlighted a favourable outlook for the rabi season.
