Growing air passenger traffic in India and other emerging markets would help generate aircraft demand worth about $5 trillion in 20 years and the fleet across aviation industry would double by 2034, Airbus said on Tuesday.
The domestic traffic flow in India alone is estimated to grow nearly 6 times, making it one of the fastest growing markets globally. Releasing its Global Markets Forecast at the 51st Paris International Air Show, it said, “From the world’s first commercial flight in 1914 to today’s 32 million flights annually, aviation has become part and parcel of our everyday lives.”
“With some three billion air passengers, and 50 million tonnes of freight carried every year by planes, it is estimated that aviation contributes $ 2.4 trillion annually to global GDP.”
In the next 20 years, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 per cent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircrafts above 100 seats (31,800 passenger and 800 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth $4.9 trillion, it said.
“By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will double from present 19,000 to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircrafts will be replaced with more fuel efficient types,” Airbus said.
Emerging economies accounting for 31 per cent of worldwide private consumption will grow at 5.8 per cent a year compared to more advanced economies, which are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8 per cent.
The tendency to travel by air is increasing, it said, adding that in emerging economies, 25 per cent of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74 per cent by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.
“Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for stronger air traffic growth,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers.
