OECD projects modest India GDP growth

OECD Chief Economist, Pier Carlo Padoan, gestures during a press conference held at the OECD headquarters in Paris, France, Thursday Sept. 8, 2011. The U.S. and rich nations in Europe need to take action to shore up confidence in their economies as their recoveries are set to stagnate or go into reverse, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

Indian economy is expected to improve marginally in the current financial year with its GDP at market price projected to expand by 3.4 per cent from 3.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, think tank Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said here on Tuesday.

The country’s economic activity is expected to recover gradually as “rupee depreciation supports exports, infrastructure projects cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Investment come on stream and political uncertainty declines after the general election due in the spring 2014,” the OECD said.

The OECD, a grouping of mostly developed nations, has pegged India’s GDP growth at market price to be 5.1 per cent in 2014-15 and further rise to 5.7 per cent in 2015-16.

India calculates GDP at constant price, which grew at 5 per cent in 2012-13, the lowest in a decade. In the current financial year ending March 2014, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram expects economy to grow by 5-5.5 per cent.

According to OECD, rupee depreciation is putting pressures on inflation, public finances, corporates and banks with high external debt exposure.

“Supply constraints will continue to restrain growth, adding to inflationary pressures and the current account deficit,” it added.

Meanwhile, OECD welcomed India’s new monetary policy framework that puts more weight on inflation as a policy anchor.

However, it said that containing inflation pressures also requires reducing the fiscal deficit and dealing with supply constraints that limit growth.

“The new Land Acquisition Law may promote investment, but the new Food Act will be fiscally costly.

“Priority should now be given to cutting energy subsidies, better targeting household transfers, implementing pending tax reforms, improving infrastructure and reforming the labour market,” it said.

World economy to grow 2.7 %

OECD projects world economy to grow 2.7 per cent this year before accelerating to 3.6 per cent in 2014.

“The pace of the global recovery is weaker than forecast last May, largely as a result of the worsened outlook for some emerging economies,” it said.