Emerging markets like India and China will play a bigger role than earlier in the global economy and there would be continuous development in Asian urban centres when the recession ends, a leading investment expert said here.
“I think free trade theoretically increases productivity as countries can concentrate on producing what they do best in a relative sense,” Principal Global Investors’ chief global economist, Dr Robert F. Baur, said at a seminar here.
Baur noted that industrialisation and urbanisation would continue in the emerging markets and going forward, there would also be continuous development in Asian urban areas.
Pointing out at the improvement in the housing and auto sectors in the US, Baur said that global recession was likely to end.
“We are hoping that both sectors will continue adding to growth into the fourth quarter,” he said adding that both savings and spending could go up together in order to achieve sustainable growth.
“This recovery is sustainable because consumer spending is improving. By the fourth quarter 2010, consumer confidence will return and move into 2011,” he said.
“I hope the Doha Round will get ramped up again. We have had several attempts to get it going,” he said, while replying to queries on the meet’s significance on US’ economy.