The Central Asian Republics (CARs) pose the most excruciating and complex challenges to Indian diplomacy judged whether by geo-strategic compulsions or by India’s energy concerns. Until the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the CARs — Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — did not figure on the radar of our diplomatic establishment. Relations with them were subsumed under the rubric of the policy towards the Soviet Union.
The collapse of the Soviet Union brought about traumatic changes in the region. It saw the rise of new dictatorships lacking unity or common purpose. They lost the security cover provided by the Soviet Union and were struggling to look for new allies. The lure of oil, gas, uranium and other precious metals drew many countries to the region. The rise of Muslim fundamentalist terrorism after 9/11 and its variants such as Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Lashkar-e-Taiba began to take roots in the region and became a zone of special concern to major powers like the U.S., Russia and China.
The currents and crosscurrents in the region stem from attempts by major powers to access oil/gas reserves. Apart from exploration and extraction, efforts are afoot to take them through pipelines stretching from CARs to Europe or to Russia, to China, etc. More than the inhospitable terrain through which the pipelines have to pass, they meet with stiff resistance from hostile regimes and rival routes are ingeniously designed. China began work on a proposal to revive the historic Silk Route to connect the region. Russia has recently decided to support China’s efforts to link the region with a network of pipelines. China’s efforts, in recent months, to promote its “Road and Belt” policy are portentous. The U.S. commenced working on its own brand of a New Silk Road to counter China’s. These episodes go under the name of “New Great Game” in the region.
India is caught in this vortex. It woke up rather late to the strategic importance of the area. It was only in 2012 that the “Connect Central Asia” policy was launched. Though in our diplomatic parlance we refer to the historical and cultural ties, our relations with the CARs in recent decades have remained low. In later years, our attention was more to counter Pakistan-sponsored terrorism than to promote economic cooperation. During the same period, China vastly expanded its economic relations with the region through trade, investment, etc.
Lack of strategic vision Our neglect of the region was, in part, due to geography and, in part, to lack of strategic vision. Though we tried to build bridges, we have to face heavy odds due to lack of geographical connectivity. The Central Asian region itself is woefully lacking in connectivity and is landlocked. Unfortunately, our access is blocked by a hostile Pakistan which works closely with China. China wishes to block our access to the energy resources of the region. Moreover, China views with suspicion India’s support for the U.S.’ New Silk Road programme. Clearly, there is a mirror image of the U.S./China rivalry in Asia with that in the CARs. India is caught in between.
This book is by an author who has worked in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas and also done research in the Jawaharlal Nehru University. His official background seems to inform much of his writing and thinking. Indeed, he covers a vast area. He begins with a historical background to India’s relations with the CARs and traces the trends in recent years, especially after they gained independence and how the “Connect Central Asia” policy was evolved.
He refers to the very low levels of trade with countries in the region which rose from $115 million in 1996 to $738 million in 2012 and yet hopes to ‘improve’ upon this. He leans heavily on the official MEA lingo about the future prospects of cooperation — bilateral and multilateral — with the countries.
Energy is crucial in promoting our relations with the CARs. The chapter on energy cooperation is descriptive and positions India’s dependence on imports and how cooperation with the region is vital. It describes well the tension in the region and the ambitions of individual countries and also their dilemmas. India places heavy reliance on TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline and the author explains how future cooperation rests on the fate of this project. At several places the book deals with the woes about TAPI. The main factors are: lack of consensus on pricing, gas certification, financing and security.
The chapter on transportation routes which are vital for connectivity offers details of many projects proposed and how they meet with severe constraints. Here again, we come across the heavy hand of Pakistan blocking our efforts. There are five chapters (5 to 9) which provide a mine of economic and political data on every country in the region. They follow a stereotype providing basic economic data on GDP, trade, exports, imports, etc. They also detail meticulously the bilateral visits undertaken in recent years. Areas of cooperation are listed for each country following the MEA format. These are indeed useful. But there is no effort to assess the work done in later years after these agreements are signed.
Though the author draws attention to the hostile role of Pakistan in blocking our efforts in the area and also to China’s in the region, he fails to capture incisively or, in entirety, the complex and varied games they play against India. There is heavy reliance on official sources and communiques. The undue optimism shown about our recent efforts to gain a foothold and improve our relations is misplaced. Leaving aside later scholarly studies and books, even the evidence (data) given in this book does not justify that optimism. Viewed thus, the book is a good handbook on CARs and India; but, fails to get out of the gobbledygook.