Environmental refugees are a problem of development policy; authors Wennersten and Robbins declare early on in this book confronting head-on the root cause of climate change.
It is because of our growth-obsessed nations plundering fossil fuels to keep the economic graph forever pointing upwards, that an environmental crisis in the form of climate change is unfolding in many countries today, the authors argue. And the evidence is abundant as more and more climate refugees land up on the shores of the Mediterranean and other entry points to affluent Western nations in a bid to escape their homelands where environmental degradation has become irreversible.
Starting from the Syrian refugee crisis to potential wars over control of water resources between countries, the authors cover a wide ambit, in an attempt to give readers an overview of what could happen were greenhouse gas emissions to continue at current levels.
There is ample data to support their thesis. For instance, the authors cite climate models to suggest that ‘peak meltwater’ from glaciers in the Tibetan Himalayan plateau, the source of all major rivers for China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, could be reached by the 2050s and all major rivers will lose 20% of their flow.
With China monopolising what’s left of the water resources, clashes along the Indo-China border could intensify leading to regional instability, creating more refugees.
The book also analyses the impact of drought and desertification felt across continents, particularly Africa. And this is not something assigned to the near future, but unfolding already.
By 1987, an estimated 10 million people had become environmental refugees in semi-arid lands in Africa, the authors note. A further 900 million people are at risk of desertification.
The authors rightly observe that often it is these gradual changes in the environment, unlike extreme weather events like tsunamis and cyclones that go unnoticed but could trigger migration of populations.
But, do the refugees braving the seas to get to other countries, have a future there?
Unfortunately, with the affluent West itself subject to the impact of the climate catastrophe, the refugees landing there from Africa and the Middle East are clearly unwelcome. An example closer home is that of Bangladeshi refugees coming into India, viewed with suspicion and harassed by the law enforcement agencies. That increasingly there are going to be a growing army of footloose migrants moving to places where they are unwelcome is the frightening scenario facing nations.
The book is a must read for policymakers and those in positions of power, especially the ones who remain in a state of denial about climate change and refuse to do enough to address the crisis.
Rising Tides: Climate Refugees in the Twenty-First Century ; John R. Wennersten and Denise Robbins, Indiana University Press, ₹1,096.
