It is difficult to classify this book. It is not a book which analyzes the economic relations between America, India and the future of the world as the title suggests. It does not engage in a dispassionate study. It is not a book on politics or foreign relations. It does not objectively examine the strategic issues governing these countries. It randomly mixes all these issues and proceeds to offer predictions. The study appears to be formidable. The main body of the book runs to 269 pages and it is supported by 102 pages of bibliography and Notes. Despite this heavy appendage, it is difficult to classify it as an academic treatise. The author has a single point agenda and all references, mostly drawn from U.S agencies and think tanks seek to lend support. Some of the conclusions drawn are so assertive that they have the ring of “Breaking News” for which our TV channels are renowned.
The book starts the visit of Prime Minister Modi to the U.S. in September last. There is glamorous description (a la CNN ) of the rousing reception he received at Madison Square Garden and the new hope that he has heralded in India-U.S. relations. Mr. Bahl adores Modi and sees him as the man who will shape India’s destiny. As he says, Modi “has the power, drive and expertise to” “slash red tape, tackle corruption, attract foreign direct investment create jobs, repair the infrastructure, and provide desperately needed social services.” Modi is supposed to have accomplished all these in Gujarat as Chief Minister.
In Bahl’s view, China is an authoritarian, anti-democratic state which denies human rights, free speech, etc. to it citizens. As a rising power in Asia, it is evil and has to be checked. Only an alliance between India and U.S. can do it. As he asserts, “After all, the region – if not the world- is looking to the U.S. and India for guidance in solving the key conundrums of the modern era...” Referring to the talks between Modi and Barack Obama, he claims, “they realized just how similar their views on China were.” During those forty-five minutes, they discussed their unease over Beijing’s aggressive rise. It is difficult to accept this if judged by the balanced or even handed manner in which India (or Modi) treats China and the US.
The author labours the point that the world is witness not to “Super Powers” but to “Super-economies.” Super economies are said to play independent roles and their power comes from growth. They have superior “soft power.” Therefore he expects them to be more powerful than “Super Powers.” This is a fallacious distinction which cannot be taken too far. All the major corporations in the US or Europe are aware that their interests are protected by their governments.
Stereotype account
Similar is the hype about BRICS. The author devotes several pages on the rise of BRICS but fails to give credit to China which gave the intrinsic strength to it. Again, the author does not note that BRICS owed its rise to the extra-ordinary flows of capital under easy monetary policy of the U.S. Fed and the very high rates of growth of China which provided export markets for their commodities. Sadly, with the setting in of the Great Recession and the slow-down of China, BRICS has ceased to be relevant. Mr. O’Neil of Goldman Sachs, who coined the acronym, has since written its epitaph!
Chapter three deals with the dispute with China over “rare earths” and provides a cavalier account. It is true that China had monopoly over rare earth metals and tried hard to use that leverage. Indeed, it is the nature of every monopolist. China fought a war for some years. Meanwhile, out of strategic compulsions, western countries began to establish their own sources. They also went to the WTO to settle the dispute. China lost and accepted the verdict. The author describes these developments as the victory of democratic forces, with India on their side. Similar is his treatment of India’s policy towards Burma. Despite pressure from the U.S., we adopted an independent course. Indeed there were twists and turns.
Chapter four provides an account of China’s claims over South China Sea. It is a stereotype account and does not do justice to the issue historically or strategically. Indeed, it is an authorized US version! Since then there is better understanding and even the ASEAN does not condemn it openly. Mr. Bahl seems to suggest that Modi was agreeable to go along with the U.S. This is questionable.
Mr. Bahl’s treatment of China’s policy towards Iran (and Iran sanctions) does violence to facts. China had vital interests in that region and had to play it cards deftly. He refers to China violating US sanctions against Iran imposed by the U.S. He fails to mention the illegal nature of the sanctions and the unilateral manner the U.S. had imposed. The U.S. went to the extent of denying remittance facilities to Iran through SWIFT. Not a word is mentioned about the U.S. action. He also fails to observe that India also violated US sanctions and made payments indirectly. India and China were on the same page when dealing with Iran. Incidentally, it was the G-20 unity which put pressure on the U.S. to resolve the disputes through negotiations rather than sanctions.
Shocking analysis
Chapter five provides an account of U.S. efforts to locate and assassinate Osama Bin Laden. Much of this has been covered by TV and print media and there is nothing new. However, what is shocking is his analysis of its impact on India US relations. He argues that the U.S. began to distance itself from Pakistan and “India was suddenly becoming a friend and ally of the U.S.” He fails to note that on terrorism issues India continues to feel let down by the U.S.
Chapter six offers a nostalgic hype over the common (colonial!) tradition which the U.S. and India share. It talks of the new role which the US offers to India such as in Afghanistan. India has its own concerns over Afghanistan, Central Asia arising from terrorism. But it cannot become a proxy for the U.S. in that region. In his zeal for promoting India US relations, the author loses sight of our own compulsions.
Chapter six is a plea to China to move away from its authoritarian ways and adopt democracy. He accuses China of engaging in patent piracy and suggests that its industrial policy goals encourage IP theft. This is standard U.S. corporate complaint. It fails to note why, despite such a climate, foreign investors are flooding into China. It also does not take into account the recent policy changes in China which offer IPR rights. Recently, IBM has entered China with a huge collaboration to manufacture its POWER8 systems. IBM will not venture to do this if it not sure of IPR protection.
Chapter nine offers an account of non-resident Indians (NRIs) who have been highly successful in several walks of life. Indeed, they do us proud. It is also true that some of them occupy important positions in US government. These links do provide us good links with them. But we should reckon with the fact that they (all of them) work to serve their national interests and will not work for India.
This book is unbalanced in its treatment of US/India/China relations. There is not a word of praise to China for what it has accomplished over the last three decades. China may be aggressive in defending its “core” interests. At the same time, China has worked with international institutions as a responsible member. Mr. Bahl does not give any credit to these and portrays China as authoritarian, anti-democratic and aggressive. Such an approach may create more heat than create ways to resolve pending disputes or promoting goodwill. It is a pity he drags India into it – which is somewhat far- fetched. He wants the US to create PATO/PAFTA (Asian equivalents of NATO/NAFTA) and India to become a member! This book may put off Indian readers and may be wildly acclaimed in the U.S.
Super Economies: the Future of the World: Raghav Bahl; Penguin Books India Pvt. Ltd., 7th Floor, Infinity Tower C, DLF Cyber City, Gurgaon-122002. Rs. 699
