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Setback to Mulayam; BSP sway continues

Atiq Khan

The Congress’ Raj Babbar won the lone Lok Sabha by-election in Firozabad

LUCKNOW: It was celebration time for the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday. The ruling BSP, written off after its disastrous performance in the Lok Sabha election, showed its might yet again. It won three of four Assembly seats in the August 2009 by-elections. This time it topped that performance by bagging nine of the 11 Assembly seats to which by-elections were held on November 7.

The Congress turned the tables on the Samajwadi Party in Firozabad, the only Lok Sabha constituency to figure in the by-polls. This seat was vacated by Mulayam Singh’s son Akhilesh Yadav. The Congress also won the prestigious Lucknow West Assembly seat vacated by Bharatiya Janata Party veteran Lalji Tandon. The Congress last won this seat in 1985.

SP draws a blank

Most shockingly for the SP, it drew a blank in this round of by-elections, losing all five Assembly seats it held, including two in its pocket borough, Bharthana and Etawah. The BJP also failed to win any seats.

In Firozabad, where SP chief Mulayam Singh had pulled out all stops for his daughter-in-law Dimple, the victor was the Congress’ Raj Babbar. For Mr. Babbar, who trounced Ms. Dimple by a margin of 85,043 votes, the victory was sweeter for having been shown the door by Mr. Singh in 2006. Mr. Babbar joined the Congress but narrowly lost the 2009 Lok Sabha election from Fatehpur Sikri.

With Rahul Gandhi unusually taking an interest in the Firozabad election, it became a battle to watch. Normally, a member of the family has to be in the fray for a Gandhi to campaign in a by-election. However, given Mr. Gandhi’s calculations for U.P., Firozabad appears to have become a test case ahead of the 2012 Assembly election.

The nine seats won by the BSP are: Rari, Isauli, Hainsar Bazar, Lalitpur, Bhartana, Padrauna, Powayan (Reserved), Etawah and Jhansi Assembly seats. Kol Asla was won by Independent Ajai Rai, who switched from the BJP to the SP in 2009 when he took on Murli Manohar Joshi in Varanasi.

The Assembly by-election results clearly underline the U.P. Chief Minister’s pre-eminence. Yet, the by-elections are likely to be remembered more for the setback suffered by the SP chief — both on the political and personal fronts. If the SP’s loss in Firozabad was spectacular, in Bharthana the defeat was a severe loss of face for Mr. Singh who vacated this seat when he contested the Lok Sabha election. Stronghold Etawah also slipped out of the party’s grip. To add insult to injury, both were won by the BSP.

The SP chief’s decision to field his daughter-in-law in Firozabad was intended as a message that no one can shake the family bastion. To take his objective to its logical conclusion, Mr. Mulayam Singh banked on the support of the Yadavs and the Lodhs and the charisma of film stars. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh’s son, Jayant Chaudhary, was roped in to campaign for the SP candidate. But in the end, nothing worked.

According to political observers, Mr. Singh’s emphasis on familial ties and the personal attacks on Mr. Babbar (he was reportedly called a “ghaddar” (traitor ) by his poll rivals) proved counter-productive for the SP.

But it is not just the defeat that ought to rankle Mr. Singh. The SP has not even bagged the maximum number of second positions. It was placed second in only four seats, Etawah, Bhartana, Rari and Lalitpur. It came third in Powayan, Isauli, Hainsar Bazar and fourth in Lucknow West and Jhansi.

For the Congress it was not all good news though. The party lost the Padrauna seat which was vacated by R.P.N. Singh when he decided to contest the Lok Sabha election from Kushi Nagar. Mr. Singh, whose family has a long association with Padrauna, went on to become a Minister of State in the Union Council of Ministers. That his mother, Mohini Devi lost the seat with him in a powerful position in Delhi cannot be to the Congress’ liking.

Rapid decline

The BJP’s poor performance in the by-elections underscores its rapid decline in U.P. Barring Lucknow West and Jhansi, the BJP candidates lost their deposits in all constituencies, including Firozabad. The saffron party paid a heavy price for the infighting in Lucknow West where Amit Puri was made the proverbial sacrificial goat.

The latest party positions in the U.P. Assembly (after the by-poll results) are: BSP - 227; SP - 87; BJP - 48; Congress - 20; RLD - 10; RSP - 1; Independents - 9; Nominated - 1; Vacant - 1 (Mughalsarai).

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