Opinion - Editorials   

Monsoon prospects

This year the southwest monsoon set in early over Kerala and got off to a dramatic, if unpropitious, start. Cyclone Aila swept in from the Bay of Bengal and wreaked havoc, including much loss of life, in West Bengal and neighbouring Bangladesh. Thereafter, the monsoon went into a slump and its progress northwards has been tardy. Most of the country usually comes under the spell of the monsoon by June 20. But this year large parts of northern India have been left baking in the sun. With so much of the country not receiving any rain, the deficit has soared. The shortfall in monsoon rains for India as a whole has now touched 53 per cent. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the monsoon will advance across most of the country, barring the northwest, by the end of this month. This should certainly help but June could still end with a sizable rainfall deficit. Historically, June rainfall by itself is poorly correlated with the monsoon’s outcome. Statistics produced by the IMD reveal that between 1901 and 2000 the rainfall deficiency in June exceeded 27 per cent in 16 years but just five of those years turned into a drought. (The southwest monsoon is said to end in a drought if nationwide rainfall during the four months from June to September falls below 90 per cent of the long-period average.)

But if there is a considerable shortfall this month, the remaining three months of the monsoon must avoid serious deficits in order to stave off a drought. July’s yield across the country could be crucial. A marked decline in that month’s rainfall is one of the changes scientists have noticed in rainfall patterns. In fact, July shortfalls played a big part in producing the droughts of 2002 and 2004 and, ominously, the IMD is predicting no less than a seven per cent deficiency this year. In addition, the El Nino brewing in the Pacific Ocean is cause for concern. The unusual warming of the equatorial waters of the central Pacific that is characteristic of an El Nino has often, but not always, been associated with poor monsoons over India. In its first long-range forecast issued in April, the IMD predicted that the nationwide rainfall during this monsoon was likely to be 96 per cent of the long-period average. It is no surprise that the updated forecast, which has just been issued, reduced the expected monsoon rainfall to 93 per cent. With an error bar of four percentage points, the updated prediction does not preclude the possibility of the monsoon slipping into a drought. Central and State governments would do well to monitor the situation carefully as it evolves. They must be prepared to act swiftly and boldly should the need arise.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Monsoon prospects
A call for global action
Searching for water on the Moon
A writer as the conscience of Africa
Where a toxic site also provides livelihood
Asian Development Bank official clarifies
Importance of a woman’s name
Rebuilding of Buddha statue begins in Bamiyan
Corrections and clarifications
Unfortunate
Burqa row
Missing ‘E’s
Correcting history

Copyright © 2009, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu