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Thursday, Jun 25, 2009
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‘Below normal’ rainfall forecast

P. Sunderarajan

NEW DELHI: The Union government on Wednesday announced a downward revision in its estimates for the rainfall in the southwest monsoon season. The rainfall will be “below normal,” at 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. In other words, it could be between 89 and 97 per cent of the LPA.

(A forecast in April predicted a “near-normal” rainfall, at 96 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent: in other words, a rainfall of between 91 and 101 per cent of the LPA. The LPA is 89 cm. It is an average of the monsoon rainfall in the 50-year period from 1941 to 1990.)

Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Prithviraj Chavan said the revision was made following estimates that there was a high probability (about 60 per cent) for El Nino conditions appearing during the remaining three months of the season. In April, there did not seem to be such a possibility.

The revision came in the backdrop of huge deficiency in the rainfall so far. As per the data for the period from June 1 to 22, there was a departure of minus 52 per cent from the LPA for the period.

Central India, comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, had been the worst hit so far, with a departure of minus 75 per cent from its LPA for the period. The northeast, comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Sikkim, followed it with a departure of minus 53 per cent from its LPA.

In the northwest, comprising Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, the departure was minus 41 per cent, and in the South Peninsula, comprising Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar, it was minus 23 per cent. However, the position in central India was expected to dramatically improve in the coming months.

Director-General of India Meteorological Department Ajit Tyagi said the monsoon was likely to set over Delhi by July first week. In other words, there would be a delay of a week to 10 days. The normal date is June 29.

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