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Monday, May 18, 2009
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NCP biggest loser in Maharashtra

Meena Menon

It didn’t cash in on demand for Maratha reservation, projection of Pawar as PM

NCPs sitting MPs from Hingoli and Hatkanangale lose battle
Its enemy seems to be from within

MUMBAI: While the Congress made unexpected gains in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra and spread itself all over the State, its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party, has emerged as the biggest loser in more ways than one.

The Congress bagged 17 seats, and even if the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) factor helped it along in Mumbai and Thane, the NCP lost face in Western Maharashtra. Its sitting MPs — Union Minister Suryakanta Patil from Hingoli in Marathwada and Nivedita Mane in Hatkanangale in Western Maharashtra — lost, and Kolhapur too went to Sadashivrao Mandlik, a rebel candidate. The NCP won nine seats in 2004. It later won Jalgaon in a by-election, taking its tally to 10. This time, it won in only eight seats.

For the NCP, though it has lost just two, there are other worrying aspects. First, it failed to cash in on the demand for Maratha reservation and the projection of its leader Sharad Pawar as prime ministerial candidate. After the results were out, NCP State president R.R. Patil admitted that the party had erred in giving ticket to candidates who caused a rift in the ranks. A classic case is in Kolhapur, where Mr. Mandlik was denied ticket. He contested as an Independent, defeating the NCP’s blue-blooded candidate Sambhaji Sahu.

Strategies backfired

The NCP’s strategies to topple the Congress in some seats backfired, especially in Pune where it did not support Suresh Kalmadi of the Congress openly. In addition, it lost the newly created Maval, which has parts of Pimpri Chinchwad where the NCP is quite strong.

Internal conflicts also led to a newcomer like Raju Shetty of the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana beating Nivedita Mane at Hatkanangale. It is a time for introspection, as Mr. Patil pointed out, in more ways than one.

When the NCP was formed in 1999, there was some expectation that it would diminish the presence of the Congress in the State. In the Lok Sabha elections, which the two parties fought separately then, the NCP won six seats, while the Congress bagged 10.

In 2004, the Congress won 13 and the NCP nine. In 2009, there was much talk of the parties going their own ways, and the former Chief Minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh, did make a forceful point. He said he was only articulating the opinion of the rank and file. Soon after the elections, there was much back-biting from both parties that they did not help each other in the campaign.

However, the enemy seems to be within. Unhappiness over the allotment of ticket, internal squabbles and the impression that there was some covert tie-up with the Shiv Sena in the offing seem to have damaged the NCP’s credibility.

Congress sources said the Scheduled Caste, Other Backward Classes and Muslims stayed with their party this time. The Maratha reservation demand had consolidated the OBC voters in a sense, and this worked to the Congress’s advantage. The NCP is seen predominantly as a Maratha party — most of its candidates were from that community —and it also projected Mr. Pawar as a Maratha strongman for Prime Minister. All that did not work out in this election.

Mantra of development

The Congress banked on its mantra of development and the massive loan waiver and packages to win back Vidarbha and, to some extent, Marathwada. The party, which won only Nagpur in 2004 in Vidarbha, bagged five this time, and three in Marathwada, where it drew a blank in the last elections. Furthermore, it gained one seat in Konkan (Ratnagiri Sindhudurg) and won all the three seats it contested in western Maharashtra (Pune, Solapur and Sangli), despite infighting and lack of support from its ally in two seats.

Votes divided

Unexpectedly, it won five seats in Mumbai, and one went to the NCP. While the Congress claims it was not the MNS factor that worked to its advantage, the fact remains that the MNS divided the Marathi votes, decimating the Sena. The Sena’s base of Mumbai and Thane was eroded in a big way by the MNS. The Palghar seat too went to the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, which is friendly to the Congress. Thane slipped out of the Sena’s hands, in a huge setback to the party. The saffron combine tried to revive the memories of the terror attacks, but it was not a major election issue at all.

Surprise element

The MNS will remain the surprise element in this election. The party came second in two of the 12 seats it contested and attracted first-time voters and the youth to a large extent. Its Marathi plank paid off. By targeting North Indians as the new enemy and projecting Raj Thackeray as an aggressive young leader, it attracted a bulk of voters who were fed up with the Shiv Sena.

Much like the Bahujan Samaj Party, which destroyed the Congress in Vidarbha in 2004, the MNS wrought havoc on the Sena, without winning a single seat. The Assembly elections later this year could see a consolidation of the MNS. For the Sena, it will be a challenge to regain its bastions of Mumbai and Thane. The Sena has spread into the rest of the State, winning 11 seats.

This should send some strong signals to the Congress and NCP. For the Assembly polls, it remains to be seen whether the two will fight together, and how all the four major parties will tackle the MNS challenge.

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