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The toss-up is between Joshi and Sushma

Neena Vyas

A strong view in BJP is there is no need to “persuade” Advani

NEW DELHI: It is almost certain that the Bharatiya Janata Party will elect a new Leader of the Opposition in the 15th Lok Sabha. The toss-up for the job could be between Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj, as Rajnath Singh’s tenure as party president continues till January 2010.

A strong view in the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is that there is no need to try and “persuade” L.K. Advani not to insist on his decision against continuing as the Leader of the Opposition.

“Good example”

Dr. Joshi on Sunday indicated as much when he said Mr. Advani had set a “good example” by saying the party should elect a new leader. He also indicated that while he was “not in the race” for this job, he would not shy away from responsibility.

In Madhya Pradesh, Ms. Swaraj said it would be “painful” for the party to elect a new parliamentary leader when Mr. Advani was around.

“No rethink”

However, highly placed sources in the party told The Hindu that the BJP wanted to be “decent” but there would be no rethink on allowing Mr. Advani to gradually take a back seat.

A meeting of the new Parliamentary party would be called only after a decision is taken — in consultation with the RSS leadership — on who should get this assignment.

Shifting vote base

There is a view that projecting a Brahmin face from Uttar Pradesh — Dr. Joshi is the new candidate from Varanasi — could help. For, the party is extremely worried about the shifting of Brahmin and other upper caste votes from the Bahujan Samaj Party to the Congress, witnessed in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. But if the party factors in the age aspect, it could decide on Ms. Swaraj, who has the advantage of being both a Brahmin and woman.

Key factors

Although a formal discussion in the BJP is yet to take place on the enormity of its defeat — it expected that the difference between the “numbers” notched up by the Congress and the party would be no bigger than 10 — several factors are being mentioned. Was the projection of Mr. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate a mistake? Party leaders now feel there was no accretion of votes for the party as a result of its high voltage campaign projecting Mr. Advani as the mazboot neta (strong leader) who would provide the country a nirnayak sarkar (decisive government).

Dr. Joshi did not refer to this specifically, but said the “campaign strategy” was wrong and the selection of candidates might have been faulty.

Varun’s speech

Sharad Yadav, president of the BJP’s major alliance partner Janata Dal (United), has also flagged Varun Gandhi’s hate speech and the projection of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a potential prime ministerial candidate. This resulted in confusion and may have driven away voters, according to Mr. Yadav.

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