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Sunday, May 10, 2009
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TAMIL NADU: It is all about the arithmetic

Suresh Nambath

In the absence of an electoral wave, the five-member AIADMK-led front should be able to press home the advantage

The Sri Lankan Tamils crisis dominated the campaign

When Tamil Nadu’s politicians are not talking about Sri Lanka, they are talking about water and rice and electricity. National issues have been pushed to the background in the battle for the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the State as political parties toggle between the emotive subject of the suffering of fellow-Tamils in a neighbouring country and local, sometimes constituency-specific, grievances of large sections of the voters.

The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party may be the principal players at the national level, but in Tamil Nadu the two regional parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, dictate the course and content of the election campaign.

Tamil Nadu witnessed a major political realignment since the 2004 election. Then, the DMK-Congress alliance had swept the polls, 39-0, in the company of the Left parties and two smaller regional players, the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The DMK and the Congress are still together, but the Left parties and the PMK and the MDMK have, for different reasons, moved over to the AIADMK camp. This, in the end, could make all the difference.

Although all parties are talking about the one international issue that dominates the campaign — the Sri Lankan Tamil crisis — most voters are more eager to hear what candidates and leaders have to say on issues that directly impinge on their lives, the rising prices and fares and tariffs, the disruptions in power supply, and job protection and employment opportunities in times of recession.

In any case, on the Sri Lankan issue, both the fronts have constituents holding conflicting positions. While the Congress takes a strident line against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the DMK, at times, displays an element of sympathy towards the terrorist organisation. Similarly, while the AIADMK is opposed to the LTTE, its allies, the MDMK, the PMK, and the CPI have taken a pro-LTTE line on the Sri Lankan issue. All the same, the constituents of the AIADMK front have been harping on the failure of the State and Central governments to stop the war in Sri Lanka.

Throughout her campaign, the AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa targeted Chief Minister and DMK president M. Karunanidhi. The two main contenders for the Prime Minister’s post, Manmohan Singh and L.K. Advani, escaped her ire. Similarly, Ms. Jayalalithaa, and not Mr. Advani, is the principal opponent for the DMK leaders.

The changed electoral arithmetic now clearly favours the AIADMK front. Although the AIADMK is considered relatively more vulnerable in the northern districts, the alliance with the PMK will more than compensate for the weak links in the chain. The MDMK could supplement the AIADMK’s already strong support base in the south. The Left parties have their pockets of influence and could make the difference between victory and defeat in those areas.

In contrast, the Congress offers a uniform level of support to the DMK across the State. This helps in constituencies where the DMK is quite strong. But in areas where the AIADMK’s lead is huge, the Congress, with an evenly spread base, is not the ideal partner. Clearly, in some constituencies, the backing of the Congress alone is not enough to help the DMK close the gap with the AIADMK. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, another ally of the DMK, cannot offer much assistance. The Dalit party is confined to a few pockets, and the efforts of its committed cadre base are concentrated on just one constituency, Chidambaram, where its leader Thol Thirumavalavan is contesting.

To the advantage of the DMK, there is no strong anti-incumbency wave. The free colour television and the free cooking gas connection schemes are popular, but some sections remain uncovered. The rice at Re. 1 a kg scheme is similarly popular, though there are complaints about quality. But, the all-round price increase seems to have taken away much of the goodwill generated by these measures.

The power shortage and the consequent disruptions in supply seem to have alienated the agricultural and industrial lobbies as well as large sections of the general population in the rural areas.

The Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam led by actor Vijayakant is the third force in the fray, ahead of the front led by the BJP. But other than cutting into the votes of the two major parties and attracting more first-time voters, the party is unlikely to win any seats. Given the unorganised nature of his support base and his strong campaign against the incumbents, Mr. Vijayakant is expected to cut into the AIADMK vote share. However, after consistently projecting himself as a third alternative, he now attracts a good section of voters dissatisfied with both the Dravidian parties. In the absence of any dominant issue, electoral arithmetic will be at work in Tamil Nadu. There will be some close contests, but the AIADMK front should be able to press home its numerical advantage in a good number of constituencies.

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