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Speculation rife over Musharraf’s safe exit

ISLAMABAD: If President Pervez Musharraf chooses to resign rather than face impeachment, would he get a “safe exit”? If he does, would he remain in Pakistan or go abroad? If he decides to go abroad, is Turkey his destination or the U.S.? If he is impeached, would he be tried?

As the tempo builds up for the impeachment of the retired General Musharraf, these questions are uppermost on everyone’s minds, but there are no clear answers yet, only a whole lot of rumours and speculation.

One story doing the rounds has it that General Musharraf wants to step down, provided the ruling coalition guarantees it would grant him an amnesty, and that the Army is working on getting him such an assurance.

The arrival in Islamabad of the former British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Mark Lyall Grant, has set off speculation that the well-connected diplomat is here to lobby the ruling coalition on General Musharraf’s behalf, along with the U.S.

In a stinging editorial against the rumoured moves by the U.S. in this direction, The News called it a “deceitful” and “disingenuous” move to influence the impeachment process itself.

Another rumour doing the rounds is that General Musharraf has told go-betweens that he does not have the money to live abroad and has asked the ruling coalition for a guarantee that if he resigns, he should be allowed to live in peace in Karachi.

With snide references about his ethnic origins, political pundits are drawing the conclusion from this that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a party that has been his political ally and controls Karachi, has assured him it would protect him and look after his security. General Musharraf is an Urdu-speaker, and the MQM is a party that represents Urdu-speakers who migrated from India at the time of Partition.

Information Minister Sherry Rehman told journalists on Tuesday that any decision on giving General Musharraf a “safe exit” if he resigned, or on how to deal with him in the event of his impeachment — to put him on trial or let him go — would only be a “collective decision of the coalition.”

General Musharraf himself is playing his cards close to the chest. Parliamentarians from the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and his spokesman have said he would remain in office and fight back all moves to oust him, but no one really knows his plan of action.

Even if he is determined to fight back, a range of options are available to him, from using his powers to dissolve Parliament and dismissing the government, moving the Supreme Court against the impeachment resolution, or going the “democratic” way of defending himself against the charges when they come up before Parliament.

On Monday, he reportedly hosted a party for his 65th birthday, combined with a pre-wedding mehendi function for a relative. The three service chiefs and family members attended. His official residence in Rawalpindi was said to be decorated with marigolds for the double celebration. People read this either as a sign that he is not giving up without a fight, or one of sheer bravado.

General Musharraf is also set to host a midnight function on Wednesday ahead of the August 14 Independence Day, which would be telecast live on the state-run Pakistan Television, after a week-long wrangle with the government. For the past eight years, this programme has been beamed by PTV from the presidency, but this year, the Prime Minister laid claim to it, conceding the battle only on Tuesday.

Now, the focus is on whether General Musharraf would use the function to make an “address to the nation” on the moves to impeach him, and to cast some light on what his next moves might be. Political analysts are saying that by declaring it would include corruption in the charge sheet against General Musharraf, the coalition is making it difficult for him to step down. If he resigns now, it would be taken as an admission of corruption.

Pakistan People’s Party leader Asif Ali Zardari had said that General Musharraf siphoned off U.S. military aid into personal accounts to the tune of $7 million a year. General Musharraf has rubbished the allegation, and analysts are saying that if he chooses to contest the impeachment, this is a charge that the ruling alliance finds hardest to substantiate.

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