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European Union’s evasion of Serbian membership

Boris Tadic is a handsome, charismatic and rather courageous politician. Had he belonged to the U.K.’s Labour party, Cabinet “loyalists” would have been queuing at his door. But Mr. Tadic already has a job. He is President of Serbia. It is he, and his young, reforming appointees, who tracked down Radovan Karadzic. It is he — the hymn from London, Paris, Berlin, Washington et al last week — who “chose Europe” (not a nationalistic, neo-fascist, sub-communist swamp, with only Moscow for a chum). Which is great: except, will Europe choose him?

Everyone loves a horror story, so the capture of Karadzic, the pursuit of Mladic and the stomach-turning bestiality of Srebrenica can soon be turned into big headlines again. Thus are Europe’s foulest days since 1945 remembered. Oh good! There is a happy ending. But Serbia has no end in sight yet, no hope of swift closure. For what are our leaders saying once they have rejoiced, hailed western values and — in some tortuous way — claimed victory for their beliefs? They’re mumbling.

Let’s say out loud, then, what every chancellery in Europe whispers behind its hands. The European Union project is not complete until membership in the western Balkans is complete. Croatia, virtually every hurdle vaulted, stands on the brink of membership. It has done 95 per cent of the negotiation. It will be ready next year. And now Serbia, at last, may follow on behind. Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo and an increasingly fraught Bosnia are waiting in the same line. So, usually unmentioned, is Albania.

None of this is outlandish stuff, nor as vexed and tangled as the Turkish question. On the contrary, it is commonplace in the U.K.’s own Foreign Office. But why the hold-up, why the mumbles and delays? Because, months ago, Croatia got a red light from Brussels. Nothing further could happen until the reforms of the Lisbon treaty were approved all round. Simply grafting another member on to the existing 27 wasn’t administratively sensible. And, because this was a process of logic and diplomacy, nobody was really talking one extra anyway. They were talking seven more, a union of 34.

That — plus Turkey as an increasingly outside bet — will be it for Europe: the practical definition of boundaries and interests formed as we’ve gone along. After Milosevic and Karadzic, no one who’s remotely serious about war, peace or progress believes the Balkans can just be left dangling in a pit of constant evasion. It was Mr. Tadic who, with rare drive, just managed to defeat the old forces of isolation (and Russian influence) at the last election. It was Mr. Tadic who kept Europe’s frail Kosovo policy — European troops holding the peace on European soil — from collapsing.

But Mr. Tadic knows, all too clearly, that he is a means to an end, not an end in himself. Serbia, the biggest and most historically maverick nation in the Balkans, must have a European future, or it will have nothing but trouble. And that’s where the snares, delusions and dislocations begin.

Was Belgrade even mentioned when Dublin voted? Of course not: nobody likes stretching voters so far. Does the British Conservative leader David Cameron make any Serbian connections when he talks about Britain’s own referendum, when and if? Of course not, unless there’s a Serbian restaurant near his west London home. And Glasgow East, inevitably, is a million miles from Balkans West.

Nevertheless, the connections are there. Among the thousands whom Karadzic helped slaughter. Among the rubble of the offices in Belgrade left untouched since NATO jets destroyed them. Emotionally, even, in the posters that plaster Belgrade hoardings. Paul Anka was here: Rihanna will be here. Summer means pop concerts and young people fresh from the Wogan memorial song contest. This isn’t some forgotten spot on the map. This is part of Europe deciding instinctively that it wants to be part of Europe, that Europe is its salvation after too many nightmares. This, when Mr. Tadic speaks, is the “vision” thing we all supposedly crave.

What happens next? Serbia, like Bosnia and the rest, moved into the official “waiting room” last year. It has hope bureaucratically locked in (and endorsed by 27 governments). But will there be momentum to match expectation? In particular, will the reasons for enlargement begin to register in the lands where only straight bananas and bent prejudices grow?

When I heard Mr. Tadic speak a few weeks ago — openly, directly — I found a man who was staking his life and his country on an honest answer to the question that defines him and, in its repercussions, could define us, too. And he didn’t mumble.

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