 Online edition of India's National Newspaper Tuesday, Jul 01, 2008 ePaper | Mobile/PDA Version |
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NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department on Monday forecast that the rainfall during the coming month across the country is likely to be 98 per cent of its long period average with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent. The forecast comes as a relief in the context of the rising inflation, since rainfall during July is important for the agricultural sector. If the forecast proves true, it would mean that farm productivity this year could be good, leading to a decline in the inflation rate. The LPA for the all-India July rainfall is 29.3 cm. To add to the feel good factor, the IMD on Monday also revised upward its forecast for the season as a whole. As per the new forecast, rainfall over the country as a whole and for the season in its entirety is likely to be 100 per cent of the seasonal LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. In the earlier forecast issued in April, the IMD had predicted that the rainfall could be 99 per cent of the seasonal LPA. Then, the model error was plus or minus 5 per cent. The LPA for the all-India, season-wide rainfall is 89 cm. As in the case of the LPA for nation-wide July rain, this figure too is based on rainfall data from 1941 to 1991. On Monday, IMD also issued region-wise forecast for the season as a whole. South peninsula, as per IMD definition, comprises Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Central India Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa and Orissa, the northwest Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkand, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, and Sikkim.
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