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Monsoon sets in over Kerala a day earlier

Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI: The much-awaited south-west monsoon has finally arrived. The Indian Meteorological Department on Saturday announced that the system has set in over Kerala, one day before the normal date of June 1.

IMD spokesperson B.P. Yadav said the westerly wind flow over the Arabian Sea and south peninsula had strengthened, and an off-shore trough along the Kerala-Karnataka coast and an east-west shear zone along 12 degree north latitude had formed.

There was persistent convention or cloud cover over the Arabian Sea and peninsular India with fairly widespread rainfall — isolated heavy to very heavy falls for the past two days over Kerala.

Mr. Yadav said conditions were favourable for the advance of the monsoon. It had covered most parts of Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu. Its northern limit passed through Kozhikode in Kerala in the west and Tiruchi in Tamil Nadu in the east.

During the next two to three days, it could reach the southern parts of Karnataka, after covering the remaining areas of Kerala and some more regions of Tamil Nadu.

The monsoon has set in almost on the lines of the forecast made by the IMD on May 14 that it was likely to arrive on May 29, with a model error of plus or minus four days.

The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for monsoon onset since 2005. Last year, it forecast it was likely to set in on May 24 and the onset was four days later on May 28. In 2006, the forecast was for May 30, and it set in four days earlier on May 26. In 2005 also, there was a gap of four days between the predicted date (June 11) and the actual onset (June 7).

During the last 50 years, the earliest onset over Kerala was in 1960, when the system set in on May 14 and the most delayed onset was in 1972, when the monsoon arrived only on June 18.

In its annual long term forecast issued on April 16, the agency predicted that the rainfall for the entire season and for the country as a whole was likely to be 99 per cent of the long period average, with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

There were some indications that the progress of the monsoon may become sluggish after June 4 because of the persistent flow of winds from the north-west towards Central India. Consequently, the northward advance of the monsoon may slow down after June 4, even while rainfall would continue in the areas that would have already been covered by the system. As per present meteorological signals, the sluggish phase could last about two to three days.

A senior IMD official said these were, however, only preliminary indications and there was a possibility that conditions could change in the coming days.

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