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Barack Obama is nearly there

After 15 months of a hard-fought and difficult primary campaign season, Barack Obama, the 46-year-old Senator from Illinois, is poised to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination by right — even though his rival has not yet thrown in the towel. A primary victory in Oregon on May 20 took Mr. Obama’s pledged delegate total to 1656, giving him a majority and bringing him closer to the 2026 needed for the nomination. He has overtaken Hillary Clinton, who triumphed in Kentucky the same day, in the super-delegate count. Ms Clinton has vowed to fight on until the last primary votes are counted on June 3; and, somewhat desperately, called for the delegates from Michigan and Florida to be included in the party’s calculation, although those states were justly excluded for flouting party rules and holding early primaries. (She ‘won’ in the two states but Mr. Obama did not campaign in Florida and his name was not on the ballot in Michigan.) Ms Clinton has harped on her ‘electability,’ underscored by her experience and her appeal to women, working class white Americans, and Hispanics, when pitted against John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. While she has done well among these constituents, the claim to superior electability has not resonated widely enough with Democratic voters to give her the numbers needed. The reality Ms Clinton must be made to face is that Mr. Obama has won impressively in several ‘white’ states; shown an extraordinary ability to mobilise young people and first-time voters; and outscored her in the pledged delegate, super-delegate, and popular vote count.

The November 4 election, which for the first time in 218 years will put the presidency of the United States within the grasp of an African American, will take place in a context defined by Mr. Obama’s main campaign theme — the need for ‘change’ after the disastrous years of the Bush presidency. His message has resonated widely and deeply among Americans. He embodies the desire of millions of Americans to end the war in Iraq, narrow the deep clefts in society between rich and poor, black and white, and rebuild the U.S.’s tattered image in the world. In an unexpected journey, Barack Obama has demonstrated a gift for bridging race and generational divides, building unlikely coalitions, and inspiring young people by squaring with them and touching their hearts and minds through a fresh, open approach to issues and a rare kind of oratory. His campaign has demonstrated superb organisational and fund-raising skills, resilience, and balance in the face of controversies that have periodically challenged it. These strengths should give Mr. Obama an excellent chance of making it to the White House.

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