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Hizbollah in the ascendant

Lebanon seems to have pulled back from the brink of another civil war. The balance of power between the various sectarian groups in the country has shifted visibly in favour of Hizbollah. The heightened confrontation from March 6 to 15, which claimed 62 lives, wound down after the Shia politico-military organisation and the government decided to hold negotiations on the formation of a new cabinet and changes in the electoral law. Hizbollah has lifted its blockade of the ro ad leading to Beirut airport and the Lebanese army has been deployed in other parts of the country where sectarian clashes occurred. There is also a fair chance that negotiations under a deal brokered by Qatar will make headway. If the deal holds, General Michel Suleiman, the army chief, is likely to be elected President and the new cabinet could include representatives of the main Shia party. These aspects of a changed dispensation should be acceptable to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and the sectarian groups that support his government. However, other ingredients of the deal might provide them cause to feel bitter. The powerful Shia Islamic movement, which took control of Beirut after driving pro-government militias off the street, has forced the Siniora cabinet to rescind two decisions that led to the confrontation. The government has now given up its effort to dismantle a secure telephone network that helped the militia’s leaders keep in touch with their field commanders. It has also withdrawn a dismissal order served on a Hizbollah ally in charge of airport security.

Hizbollah has proved beyond doubt that in terms of organisational strength, mobilising capability, and firepower, it is the dominant force in Lebanon. Its credibility has been enormously strengthened after it left an invading Israel with a bloody nose in 2006. During the recent crisis it became clear that the army, the one national institution acceptable to all groups, was not up to the task of taking on the Shia Islamic movement. In demonstrating its primacy on the Lebanese scene, Hizbollah has taken on itself an onerous responsibility. The country’s electoral laws are outdated since they apportion parliamentary seats among the diverse sectarian groups without taking into account the demographic changes that have occurred over time. In forcing the dismantling of a colonial legacy that denies Shias their due, Hizbollah needs to take other sections along. No single ‘confession’ (to use Lebanese parlance) seems to be really dominant and no community can rule on its own. The challenge before Hizbollah is to demonstrate the political maturity needed to give a new orientation to Lebanon’s fragmented politics.

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