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Electoral College road to the White House favours Democrats

WASHINGTON: The electoral road to the White House favours Democrats this fall — either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton — and has Republican John McCain playing defence to thwart a presidential power shift.

A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq, and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the Republican nominee-in-waiting.

Both parties count on victory in dozens of States that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a long-time Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.

Eight of the States went for President George W. Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. Far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for Mr. McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest States — decided by 2 or fewer percentage points — voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the Republicans won by 1 point.

Both sides argue that their candidates can expand the playing field by making more States competitive than in previous elections.

But they likely will only spend time and money to test that theory once they feel confident about higher priority States.

“This is going to be a tough campaign. I have no illusions how hard we have to work to win,” Mr. McCain says, a sobering assessment of a Republican’s chances when most voters say the country is on the wrong track under Mr. Bush.

Conversely, Democrats exude confidence that November 4 will break their way — even as they continue their nomination slugfest. “I have every reason to believe we’re going to have a Democratic President,” Ms. Clinton argues. Mr. Obama declares: “We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!”

Recent polls, however, show Mr. McCain competing strongly with both Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama in hypothetical match-ups, and Republicans and Democrats envision a close race.

In 2004, Mr. Bush won 286 electoral votes to 251 for Mr. Kerry.

This year’s Democratic nominee must triumph in all the States Mr. Kerry won, and pick up 19 more votes to prevail — or come up with another game plan to reach the magic number. Mr. McCain, for his part, must fend off Democratic challenges to hang on to the GOP advantage. — AP

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