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A two-horse race

The race for the Republican Party’s nomination for the November 2008 U.S. presidential election has acquired definite shape much earlier than was expected when campaigning got under way in 2007. The list of candidates was longer than usual and at least four of them attained front-runner status during various stages of the campaign. The strains within the party added to the complexity of the race. Not only has the divide between the ‘moderates’ and ‘ right-wingers’ widened over the past seven years of the Bush presidency, the three strands of the conservative movement also appeared to have fallen out with one another. Given these conditions, it seemed likely that more than a couple of candidates would vie for the support of key constituents until close to the end of the primary season. With John McCain and Mitt Romney finishing first and second in the Florida primary held on January 28, projections of this sort are no longer valid. Fred Thompson, once considered a Reaganesque resuscitator of the party’s fortunes, faded out after the primaries and caucuses held in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina. Mike Huckabee, whose candidature became viable after his surprising victory in Iowa, could not replicate the miracle despite his strong religious bent of mind. Then there was Rudy Giuliani whose campaign message, as one detractor famously put it, comprised “a noun, a verb, and 9/11.” The former New York Mayor concentrated most of his resources in Florida, believing that a resounding victory in this swing State would enable him to storm the remainder by claiming to be the only person strong enough to combat terrorism. After his poor third place performance, Mr. Giuliani has thrown in the towel and endorsed Mr. McCain.

Even Mr. McCain’s critics within the Republican Party have conceded that he would be their best bet in the presidential campaign in view of the support he draws from voters registered as independents. However, the Senator from Arizona is regarded as a maverick by the ideologically committed among the party’s rank and file who have an overwhelming say in picking the nominee. His victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina were discounted to a certain extent since independents are allowed to participate in party primaries in these two States. In taking Florida in a contest open only to Republicans, Mr. McCain has proved he can attract the party faithful. While Mr. Romney with his formidable financial resources is very much in this two-horse race, there are early signs that the Republican establishment is closing ranks behind the man from Arizona.

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