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Dangerous time for Benazir

The massacre of close to 140 people in the terrorist attack on the cavalcade heralding Benazir Bhutto’s triumphal return after eight years in exile is a deadly reminder of the challenges facing democratic forces in Pakistan. Ms Bhutto was spot-on in her assessment that the forces of religious extremism could be defeated only through the mass mobilisation of the moderates who make up the vast majority of her compatriots. The huge, tumultuous welcome given to the Pakis tan People’s Party leader in Karachi hours before the suicide bombings provided ample indication that the moderate masses are ready to face danger while rallying to a cause they believe in. Not surprisingly, PPP volunteers, who served as a moving human wall protecting the vehicle carrying their leaders, accounted for most of the casualties. They will face more dangers in the lead-up to, and well beyond, the general election expected to take place in early 2008. There does not seem to be any reason to question the Musharraf regime’s claim that it provided a technically sophisticated security cover to the PPP leader after she landed in Karachi. The fact that the world will keep its eyes on political happenings in Pakistan should work in favour of Ms Bhutto’s safety. However, no security arrangement is foolproof and defenceless party activists and sympathisers could become the targets of extremist attacks in the coming months.

Ms Bhutto herself seems to have faced the October 19 attack with the personal courage and fortitude she is reputed for — but she will need to demonstrate steely qualities of leadership over a long period as her supporters push her to fight simultaneously against the two scourges of Islamist terrorism and military rule. After all, the PPP leader’s return from exile was enabled by the questionable bargain she struck with Pervez Musharraf: her party did not oppose the President’s re-election as the price for an ordinance annulling the corruption cases against her and others. Elated at the mass upsurge triggered by her return, Ms Bhutto’s party base is urging her to repudiate the agreement as the politically embarrassing National Reconciliation Ordinance is no longer relevant. The argument is that the regime will not dare arrest her. The pressure to back out of the compromise can increase tremendously if the Supreme Court strikes down the President’s re-election. On the other hand, a United States administration that stands firmly behind General Musharraf is likely to press Ms Bhutto to preserve the partnership. The PPP leader, who is well aware of the linkages between the terrorist groups and fundamentalist elements in the military establishment, might soon have to make a major judgment call.

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