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Little time, few options for Musharraf

It was seen as President Pervez Musharraf’s best bet for another term in office, and Pakistan People’s Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto’s best chance to return to power. A “deal” between the two, combining General Musharraf’s military leadership and Ms. Bhutto’s democratic credentials in measured doses, is what Washington thinks is the best antidote against Islamist extremism and the Talibanisation of the region. Those who fear a p opular agitation for democracy could tip the country into an emergency, martial law or into the hands Islamist extremists, also see it as the best route to a painless transition to democratic, moderate, civilian rule in Pakistan.

But on the treacherous shifting sands of Pakistani politics, nothing is permanent. The widely reported, never officially acknowledged, Abu Dhabi meeting between General Musharraf and Ms. Bhutto on July 27 was said to be the final stage of long-drawn-out negotiations for this “marriage of convenience.” The alliance immediately ran into a number of difficulties. In the Benazir camp and among PPP supporters, there was a sense of betrayal that she was talking to a “military dictator” at a time when the mood in the country was “Go Musharraf Go.” Stung that he was talking to an arch rival, the General’s camp, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Q), threatened rebellion.

While both sides figured out their next steps, the former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif’s stature grew at Ms. Bhutto’s expense, as he stuck to his “principled stand” of not negotiating with the regime. Now, Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling enabling Mr. Sharif’s return to Pakistan casts even more uncertainty on the so-called Musharraf-Benazir “deal” and may even sink it, certain as it is to force a rethink by Ms. Bhutto and no less by the Pakistan ruler about their respective options.

The lesson from Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary’s dismissal and reinstatement is: anyone defying General Musharraf is an instant hero. This is why Mr. Sharif emerged as the champion of democracy, while Ms. Bhutto, identified closely with the regime, will need to swiftly consider in the interests of her political future if she can afford to surrender the opposition space entirely to him. The PPP leader justified negotiations with the regime “in the interests of a peaceful transition to democracy” but PPP second-rungers, who knew the mood on the street better, have been long warning against this course.

As Aitzaz Ahsan, parliamentarian and lead counsel for Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary in his legal battle against the President, put it some time ago, a sea-change has come over the people of Pakistan since March 9, the day Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary defied his dismissal by President Musharraf; those who ignore it and negotiate with a military ruler would be committing political suicide; the first leader to return from exile would ride a wave to “storm the fortress” of military rule.

That could be Mr. Sharif, his return imminent after the Supreme Court ruling that enables him to end his exile. In recent days, in several surveys, the former Prime Minister has emerged as the most popular leader, slightly ahead of President Musharraf, with Ms. Bhutto trailing at number three.

Not surprisingly, the PPP is jittery of a possible wave in favour of the PML(N) leader. His party is already galvanised by the ruling and is preparing for an all out mobilisation drive in preparation for his return. As another PPP leader, Raza Rabbani said, in a tone of near-resignation: “The homecoming of any political leader is certain to invigorate the party. At this moment, the day belongs to the PML (N).”

With the Bhutto-Musharraf deal seen as blessed by Washington, the PML (N) leader also stands to reap the anti-Americanism sweeping through Pakistan. There have already been questions about how free and fair general elections can be if the U.S. has already decided what sort of government they want next in Pakistan. Few know the exact terms of the “deal.”

What is clear is that General Musharraf wants Ms. Bhutto’s help to secure another five years in office, in uniform, from the sitting electoral college in the last days of its own five-year term. He expects the ruling PML (Q) to provide the simple majority he needs to win. All that the PPP has to do is not resign from its seats in the National Assembly or the provincial assemblies, as other opposition parties have resolved to do. A full opposition resignation from the electoral college could rob the election of its legitimacy, but if the PPP stays in, that weapon would be blunted.

That he travelled to Abu Dhabi to meet Ms. Bhutto, in the process exposing his own weakness, showed he was eager to tie this up, in return for withdrawing graft cases against her and a chance to share power with him after the elections.

Aware she is dealing with a much-weakened and unpopular opponent, Ms. Bhutto has been pushing a harder bargain with General Musharraf. In recent interviews, the PPP leader has said she wants him to take several immediate steps in return for her support: “indemnity” for those holding public office before 2001, which means the corruption cases against her will have to go; a level playing field, meaning that she must be allowed to return to lead her party in the elections, electoral reforms to ensure a free and fair election; and a constitutional change to remove the two-term bar on a Prime Minister, that would enable her to hold the office for a third-term.

She has indicated that while she may not actively oppose President Musharraf’s September/October re-election in uniform from the existing electoral college, he would have to be endorsed by the new Parliament after the general elections. For the PPP to consider endorsing him, he would have to step down as army chief, and become a civilian.

The PPP leader has also been pitching for the restoration of “the balance of power between the Executive and parliament,” so that the President does not have the power to sack the government and dissolve parliament.

But Ms. Bhutto has to consider if Pakistanis see this through her eyes as a transition to democracy or as giving President Musharraf’s “sinking ship” a fresh lease of life, as Mr. Sharif has accused her of doing. In the coming days, her isolation is bound to increase as a new All Parties Democracy Movement that Mr. Sharif formed with the six-party religious coalition Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf takes centre-stage. The PPP did not enter this alliance on a stated desire to keep its distance from religious conservatives. But the alliance includes several natural PPP allies such as the moderate Awami National Party, and smaller regional groups that consider themselves ‘secular’ such as the Baloch Nationalist Party and the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement.

President Musharraf too will need to rethink the viability of his re-election plan using the present electoral college. Thus far, he has been adamant that the re-election is constitutional and that he can hold on to his uniform at least until December 2007. But in order to be re-elected, he needs the ruling PML (Q) to stay together and stay happy. But prospects of a “deal” with the PPP has caused heartburn in the “King’s party,” with many Q Leaguers fearing that after his re-election, President Musharraf would dump them in favour of the PPP.

They do not want Ms. Bhutto to return to the country to campaign for her party, as that could truly wipe them out. Not natural vote-winners in the best of times, they have seen their re-election prospects go dim as President Musharraf’s ratings plummet. Now, the return of Mr. Sharif could see many go scurrying back to his camp, from where they originally defected to form the PML (Q).

Last week, the President travelled extensively in Punjab province trying to put out the fires in his camp. He met groups of ruling party legislators and played down the deal with Ms. Bhutto, instead claiming credit for dividing the opposition by talking to her, and reassuring them that he would not take any decision that went against their interests. It was always certain that his re-election would be challenged in court, especially so after the July 20 reinstatement of Iftikhar Chaudhary as Chief Justice. Now, with Mr. Sharif making plans to return, President Musharraf also has to consider the challenge on the Pakistani street as the opposition mobilises against him, the possibility that Ms. Bhutto might join hands with it, plus the possibility of defections from the PML (Q).

Time is running out for President Musharraf, so are his options. His main hope now is to thwart Mr. Sharif’s comeback with threats of throwing him in jail and reopening corruption cases against him. Declaring emergency or resorting to martial law are also options in the background.

But even commentators sympathetic to him are now urging him to call parliamentary elections under a neutral caretaker government and an independent election commission, seek re-election only from the new parliament, as a civilian, and accept the result this brings.

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