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It's hot in Beijing this February

Pallavi Aiyar

Temperatures for the month have been the highest since records began to be compiled in 1840. The culprit: climate change.

— PHOTO: AFP

This photograph taken on July 18, 2006, shows cyclists passing a factory spewing smoke in Yutian, 100 km east of Beijing.

FEBRUARY IN Beijing is a usually a fearsome month for the tropically inclined Indian. The mercury tends to stay put well below freezing, and biting winds whip the eyes, cold enough to leave exposed skin raw. But, even as a United Nations panel brought out a damning report on climate change in early February that declared global warming to be "unequivocal," the Chinese capital is experiencing some of its warmest weather in recorded history.

Last week, Beijing experienced temperatures as high as 16 degrees Centigrade, the highest since records began to be compiled in 1840. The ice on the city's lakes has begun to melt weeks ahead of schedule, magnolia trees have started to blossom, a phenomenon that usually occurs in April and people are shedding their heavy winter clothes for lighter spring jackets, in what is a dramatic departure from the norm.

Moreover, it's not only Beijing that has been affected by strange weather this winter. January-December temperatures were on average the highest in 56 years in areas as far flung as Jiangsu in the east and Xinjiang in the far west, provinces that are some 3,000 km apart.

China's top meteorologist Qin Dahe told a press conference last week that China's unusually warm winter was caused in part by global warming.

The U.N. report released a few days earlier predicted temperature rises of 1.1 C to 6.4 C by 2100 and expectedly identified greenhouse gas emissions as the leading cause.

China is the world's second largest emitter of these, behind only the United States. Last November, the International Energy Agency predicted that China would surpass the U.S to become the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, by 2010.

High coal consumption

Previous predictions had estimated that China would overtake the U.S. as late as 2020. However, the country's soaring consumption of coal has led to rapidly increasing emissions. The country's energy consumption is growing at around 10 per cent a year and almost 70 per cent of these needs are met by coal.

The smokestacks of China's ubiquitous factories, the mainstay of the country's high economic growth, spew out gigantic quantities of pollutants into the atmosphere. According to a World Health Organisation report, 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China. Independent of the U.N. panel's findings, a separate Chinese report on climate change released in January predicted that China would continue to see temperatures rise up to 2100, which could reduce grain production by up to 37 per cent in the second half of this century.

Another report released by the State Oceanic Administration highlighted the terrible erosion suffered by coastal cities as a result of sea-level rise. It predicted a rapid rise in sea levels of 9-31 millimetres over the next 3-10 years.

China's response to these reports has been to reiterate that the primary responsibility for cutting down emissions lies with the developed world. "It must be pointed out that climate change has been caused by the long-term historical emissions of developed countries and their high per capita emissions," a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said at a press conference last week.

Chinese officials have also often highlighted that China's per capita emissions remain well below the averages of richer countries.

However, with mounting evidence in support of global warming as well as China's own role in the phenomenon, Beijing will be launching its first-ever comprehensive national programme to address the issue of climate change, later this year. According to state media, it will be a four-year plan outlining goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and developing green technologies. It will also solicit international cooperation for technology transfer projects.

The Chinese government has woken up to the realities of climate change and is making it a matter of priority, said Mr. Qin, the top meteorologist, last week. He added that China had begun to see the matter not only as an environmental concern but also as an issue with long-term consequences for development.

However, China lacked the financial resources and technological abilities to make a rapid shift to cleaner and more expensive energy technology, he said, warning that the path ahead would be slow and difficult.

Walking past Beijing's melting lakes and blossoming trees, partly obscured by the grey fug of smog that has become the capital's permanent hallmark, the question does arise whether China can afford the time its officials say it needs before taking serious action to combat climate change.

Mr. Qin evaded the question of whether China would agree to mandatory, specific targets to reduce emissions. Moreover, while he pointed to China's ambitious five-year target set last year of reducing its energy consumption by four per cent annually, he failed to mention that the country had already fallen behind this target in its first year. In fact, China's energy consumption actually increased by 0.8 per cent per unit of GDP in the first half of last year, according to the latest statistics available.

China is understandably concerned about the need to balance the damage caused by long-term warming with any short-term slowdown of its economy. The manner in which it ultimately decides to strike this balance will have weighty consequences not only for its own future course but that of the world.

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