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A climate change warning

There is less uncertainty and greater understanding about how human activity is contributing to global warming and climate change, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body tasked with determining the state of the planet. Much to the disappointment of climate change sceptics, key data and statistical modelling have provided stronger evidence supporting the view that Greenhouse Gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide and methane released by human activities are warming the world abnormally. In its recently released working group report on the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, the IPCC has stated "unequivocally" that globally averaged increases in temperature since the mid-20th century "very likely" resulted from an observed rise in GHG concentrations. In their previous report issued six years ago, climate scientists of the IPCC could make such an assertion with only 66 to 90 per cent certainty; now that confidence level has crossed the 90 per cent mark. The report holds grim portents for humanity. Even if the world becomes a responsible, convergent, cooperative, and energy-efficient place with exemplary performance in reducing GHG emissions, existing gas levels in the atmosphere can continue the warming process for centuries. Going by the estimates for warming, a rise in global temperature of 1.1 degrees Celsius by 2099 appears inevitable while the increase could soar to a dangerous and possibly unmanageable maximum of 6.4 degrees C with less effective interventions. The forecast is for a continuing rise in the sea level and more frequent hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy rainfall events.

At the root of the climate crisis is the overwhelming dominance of carbon-based fuels. These fossil fuels power economies including our own, transport people, and light up homes. They have also contributed, since the industrial revolution, to a marked rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide; this could be the reason for 11 of the last dozen years (until 2006) being the warmest on record since 1850. It is perfectly logical therefore, that on the eve of the release of the IPCC report, two lawmakers in California proposed legislation to ban Thomas Edison's iconic invention, the incandescent light bulb in favour of much more energy-efficient compact fluorescent bulbs; every CFL bulb, they reasoned, would reduce by 1,300 pounds the carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere by power plants. A similar culture of efficiency in power generation, industrial manufacturing and automotive sectors can cut Giga-tonnes of emissions. Climate change is here to stay but the business-as-usual culture can only hasten its devastating impact.

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