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Bush blunders on

One of the cardinal tenets of military theory is that commanders should not reinforce failure. With United States President George W. Bush deciding to add 20,000 soldiers to the occupation army in Iraq, he is clearly ignorant of this principle. The augmented force has been set the task of pacifying Baghdad and the province of Anbar. This is much the same mission that the 132,000-strong U.S. military has been trying to accomplish since August 2006 with nothing to show for its efforts. Most analysts believe that an additional 20,000 soldiers will not make any difference on the ground. Mr. Bush has taken this step despite opposition from an overwhelming majority of the American people, a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party, several senior generals, and even the regime in Baghdad. The generals who opposed the move were of the view that troop enhancement offered no guarantee of success against the Iraqi resistance. Mr. Bush has taken note of their advice that political and economic measures should also be taken. However, the implementation of non-military measures has been left largely to the Iraqi government, which has shown no signs of either competence or fairness. There is little chance that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Shia allies will accede to the U.S. demand for a more equitable distribution of political power and oil revenues.

The Shias have reason to believe that their militias will be targeted as the occupation forces try to mollify Baghdad. The Iraqi army, police, and paramilitary forces, which are largely Shia, are not likely to participate enthusiastically in the pacification drive. These forces are expected to play the lead role in the Baghdad operations with the U.S. troops either embedded within their ranks in an advisory capacity or providing backup. Less than a third of the Iraqi troops supposed to take part in the operations from August 2006 actually did so; it is not likely to be any different now. By his ill-conceived move, Mr. Bush has only exposed an additional batch of U.S. soldiers to attack by both Sunnis and Shias. While the Democrats in the two Houses of Congress have tabled non-binding resolutions criticising the President's decision, they might not be able to prevent him from going ahead with the plan. What seems clear is that in the remaining two years of his second term, this American President will continue to compound the blunders his administration has committed in Iraq and beyond.

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