The Hindu : Front Page : In 100 years, rain forest may turn into grassy savannah

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Sunday, Dec 31, 2006
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In 100 years, rain forest may turn into grassy savannah

Global warming will reduce rainfall in the Amazon

RIO DE JANERIO : Global warming could spell the end of the world's largest remaining tropical rain forest, transforming the Amazon into a grassy savanna before the end of the century, researchers said.

Jose Antonio Marengo, a meteorologist with Brazil's National Space Research Institute, said that global warming, if left unchecked, would reduce rainfall and raise temperatures substantially in the ecologically rich region.

"We are working with two scenarios: a worst case and a second, more optimistic one," he said. "The worst case scenario sees temperatures rise by 5 to 8 degrees Celsius until 2100, while rainfall will decrease between 15 and 20 per cent. This setting will transform the Amazon rain forest into a savanna-like landscape."

Major steps

That scenario supposes no major steps are taken toward halting global warming and that deforestation continues at its current rate, Mr. Marengo said.

The more optimistic scenario supposes Governments taking more aggressive actions to halt global warming. It would still have temperatures rising in the Amazon region by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius and rainfall dropping by 5 to 15 per cent.

"If pollution is controlled and deforestation reduced, the temperature would rise by about 5 degrees Celsius in 2100," said Mr. Marengo. "Within this scenario, the rain forest will not come to the point of total collapse." — AP

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