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Mixed message from U.P.

The recently concluded three-tier civic elections in Uttar Pradesh were marred by unprecedented violence. But that was not the only reason why the exercise made the headlines. The polls were billed as a dress rehearsal for the big match slated for early 2007. In the event, the results offered no clarity. In the wilderness since the 2002 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party made a near sweep of the mayoral polls winning eight of 12 seats, leaving three seats to the Congress and just one to the ruling Samajwadi Party. The BJP is predictably basking in the glory; party chief Rajnath Singh is on record claiming the next government will be formed by the BJP. The Congress is equally excited by what it sees as a major revival on the ground. If only their reading of the verdict is correct, the line-up in the next U.P. Assembly will be as follows: the BJP on top, followed by the Congress and the SP, with the Bahujan Samaj Party bringing up the rear. This is a patently absurd projection.

The acknowledged big two in India's most volatile political State are the BSP and the SP. The simple fact is that the bookie's favourite BSP did not contest these elections and instead chose to back select independent candidates. Secondly, municipal polls are at best a measure of a political party's urban following; the BJP has always held sway in the big cities as is evident from the six mayoral seats it won in 2000. It is crucial to remember that U.P. is overwhelmingly rural. Indeed, in the relatively more rural nagar palikas and the nagar panchayats, the BJP and the Congress were pushed to the third and fourth positions by the SP and BSP-supported independent candidates. So why is the BJP jubilant? And what explains the cautious optimism in 24 Akbar Road? For the BJP, this is the first bit of good news to emerge in a long time from a State where its prospects have declined with every election — its tally slumped from 221 of 419 seats in 1991 to 88 of 403 seats in 2002 in the Assembly and from 51 of 84 seats in 1991 to 10 of 80 seats in 2004 in the Lok Sabha. For BJP watchers, the only point of interest post the 2004 Lok Sabha election was this: will the Hindutva party retain its third position or will the Congress overtake it? The Congress's position was such that it could not get any worse. From being written off to hitting the headlines is obviously a welcome transition for both the parties. But they would be wise not to draw further conclusions — not in a State where the poll fray is crowded by parties growing in numbers with each passing day.

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