Opinion - News Analysis   

Seven years and counting

Nirupama Subramanian

On October 12, Pervez Musharraf celebrated seven years in power in Pakistan. But what does the future hold for him and his country?

ON HIS recent three-week four-nation trip, President Pervez Musharraf told the media contingent accompanying him that he was relaxed and confident, which was why he could take so much time off from running the country.

As he began his eighth year in power, President Musharraf looked every bit as relaxed and confident as he said he was. At an expansive press conference on the eve of the seventh anniversary of his coup, that began with an iftaar feast at a five-star hotel and continued over the next four hours, he wore the pressures of leading Pakistan lightly.

He was chatty, laughed and joked about his book, and even admitted to failures, comparing his seven years to "a glass, half full and half empty, the successes are the full part, and the failures the empty part."

He did show an alarmingly inadequate grasp of history and a tendency for inappropriate analogy when he brought up Operation Bluestar to illustrate "what countries do" to enforce the writ of the government while talking about Balochistan. He also ticked off a journalist for not keeping the national interest in mind when she asked how A.Q. Khan could have carried out his proliferation racket without the knowledge of anyone else in the government or the army. "Do you want to get Pakistan declared a rogue state?" was his reply.

At no point did he look like a leader who faces questions of credibility at home and abroad. His unruffled reply to a questioner who wanted to know how long his "hukumrani" (a pejorative Urdu word for rule) would continue, was that he would desist from commenting on this.

The confidence has been evident since his return from the foreign tour. When he left, Pakistan was churning. The Opposition's apparent unity, the Bugti killing, even his government's failed attempt to make changes to the Hudood laws as it succumbed to blackmailing by religious parties made the regime look directionless and lost. The rumours of a coup against him, that many believed so quickly, made it all look even worse. Since 9/11, he has walked a tightrope between American interests in the region and mainly Islamist-propelled anti-American sentiment at home, and many in Pakistan thought that he was looking his shakiest.

Something has since changed and it is not just the success of the book, even though the author of "the first best-selling book from Pakistan" seems quite chuffed by what he described as his debut "luck." Political observers in Pakistan have put down the spring in his stride to the rumoured good wishes of the Bush administration to him on his recent visit for another innings in power as the next presidential elections approach.

President Musharraf began his eighth year in power with an appeal to moderate forces in the country to join hands with him to fulfil the vision of its founding father of Pakistan as a modern Muslim nation. He emphasised how important it was to win the struggle against extremists if Quaid-e-Azam Jinnah's vision was to be fulfilled. And he stressed his own importance in this struggle in unique style.

"Wherever I went, whoever I met, without exception, has said that Pakistan is the breeding ground of extremism, of terrorism, that the ISI supports this. But somehow they believe me. It's a strange dichotomy. Maybe they think I'm the only fellow here who is all right in Pakistan," he said.

But the question his moderate critics are asking is, if he is so "all right" what prevented President Musharraf from doing anything for this vision in these last seven years. After all, he first spoke of enlightened moderation six years ago. If in this time, religious extremist forces have gained political power, it is thanks to his sidelining of mainstream political parties, and the backlash from the decision to unquestioningly back the U.S. `war on terror.' They are asking why, if he claims to be a champion of moderation, did he succumb just last month to Islamist forces that opposed amending the anti-women Hudood ordinances. And why, as the Daily Times, asked in an editorial, does he continue to retain jihadi options in Kashmir and Afghanistan?

Speculation is rife in Pakistan, despite daily denials from the Pakistan People's Party, that part of President Musharraf's current confidence owes to an impending "arrangement" with Benazir Bhutto for government formation after the 2007 general elections. It is unclear if this deal, reportedly at American prodding, includes her return to Pakistan.

At the press conference, the President said she and Nawaz Sharif would not be allowed to contest the elections, although all political parties would be permitted to participate. Despite such strings to the promised "free and fair elections," it is thought that if an alliance does come through, it would help shore up his "moderate" credentials.

But the question is how successful the "moderate Pakistan" project can be, even if moderate forces join hands with President Musharraf, as long as the army continues to rule over Pakistan. His critics point out that a truly moderate nation can come about only with a full democracy, not through deals between political parties and the military for the next elections, however "enlightened" the aim.

As the Dawn pointed out, "If the President has truly converted to the cause of moderation, it is inevitable that the moderates will find themselves in the same camp as he. But does he realise that moderation and liberalism do not simply mean confronting the extremists? They also mean upholding political, economic, and judicial principles a democracy society stands for."

The crucial question for those who want a truly moderate Pakistan is whether General Musharraf can make the transition to plain Mr. Musharraf before the next elections — in other words, shed his uniform and contest the elections on a political platform without the backing of the military. This, they believe, is not only the necessary condition for the next elections to be free and fair, but also the only way to provide a natural and strong foundation for building a moderate nation. India too will be watching closely. The future political shape of Pakistan has important implications for both countries.

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