NEW DELHI: The first advance estimates of kharif foodgrains output is expected to match last year's first advance level of 105 million tonnes with rice output likely to be higher by two million tonnes at 76 million tonnes. However, there is likelihood of a decline in the production of oilseeds and coarse cereals, primarily because of lower area coverage under groundnut, maize and ragi. Inclement weather in parts of groundnut-sowing States of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat has also played a part in lower coverage. (In the fourth advanced estimates last year, however, the total kharif foodgrains output was higher at 109.7 million tonnes, with rice output at 78.04 million tonnes.)

Announcing the first estimates here on Friday at the end of the two-day national conference on Agriculture for Rabi campaign 2006-07, Union Agriculture Secretary Radha Singh said although the sowing had been "very satisfactory,'' much would depend on how the weather plays out. She asserted that the first advance estimates were comparable to last year's first estimates, not the fourth round of assessment of foodgrains.

The total area sown under kharif crops this year is 70.32 million hectares against 70.12 million hectares last year. Based on the sowing, maize and ragi output are expected to be lower one million tonne each over last year's first estimates. Pulses are expected to match last year's level of five million tonnes. Groundnut, however, is likely to be lower at four million tonnes against six million tonnes last year, while soya bean is estimated to be higher at 8 million tonnes against 7 million tonnes last year. Cotton, jute, mesta and sugarcane are also expected to do better than last year.

Despite working out a Rs. 2,482-crore interventions package for raising wheat production and productivity for the oncoming rabi season, Ms. Singh declined to make any projections for wheat output next rabi. "Projections are mistaken for estimates and that creates confusion,'' she said. Even so, the Centre expects wheat yield to be higher by four to five million tonnes, as a result of the inputs intervention package.

With the rabi sowing season set to commence next month, the Ministry has asked States to encourage farmers to advance wheat sowing by two weeks to escape the pre-harvest rise in temperatures between January and March. In the last three years the pre-harvest pre-heating has caused "shrivelling'' in the wheat grain leading to loss in production, upsetting initial projections. According to the Secretary, about five to seven million tonnes had been lost in this manner in the last few years. "Stagnancy in the production of wheat as well as pulses and oilseeds is a matter of concern.''

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