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Gulf countries adopt oil export contingency plan

Atul Aneja

GCC member nations fear closure of exit points if U.S., Iran clash

DUBAI: Faced with the standoff between the United States and Iran, the six Gulf countries have adopted a contingency plan to make up for the possible closure of two exit points from where most of their oil supplies pass.

Most of the oil tankers that load at Gulf ports pass through either of the two routes. Ships loading at ports on the eastern side of the Arabian peninsula can conveniently pass through the Strait of Hormuz that is located between Iran and Oman.

Details not released

Nearly 40 per cent of the world supplies of oil pass through this route. Tankers heading westwards pass through the strait of Bab al-Mandab before approaching the Suez Canal on their way to Europe.

According to the official news agency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Wam, Transport Ministers of the six Gulf countries have "adopted an emergency plan to be implemented on (GCC) seaports if Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab straits are closed." The agency, however, did not reveal any details. The GCC comprises Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Oman. The GCC's plan has been drawn up amid a heated debate in these countries on the fall-out of the growing tensions between Iran and the United States. The GCC countries are part of a regional security alliance with the U.S. and fear that their territories could become the battleground in case Washington and Teheran got involved in a military confrontation.

Analysts, however, point out that despite their anxieties, most GCC countries have crystallised their position on ways to deal with the situation. "The Gulf countries have made the strategic choice that Iran should not become a nuclear weapon power at any cost. This is definitely the bottom line," Mustafa Alani, programme director, Security and Terrorism Studies, at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center told The Hindu .

According to diplomatic sources, there is a perception that the U.S. has altered its approach towards Iran, on account of its experiences in Iraq.

"No regime change"

Unlike Iraq, the U.S. is no longer fixated to achieving "regime change" in Iran, they said. On the contrary, the focus appears to be on changing "regime behaviour." This would be in line with the "Libya model," where the regime, known for its hostility to the U.S. at one time, was "persuaded" to drop its confrontational approach in favour of a cooperative one.

Direct talks between Iran and the U.S. were a possibility but the general view in Gulf countries was that these should not take place under a bilateral format where other countries, especially from Europe were excluded. This was to ward off situation that had prevailed during the time of the Shah of Iran when the interests of the Gulf Arab states were sidelined because of "secret deals" between Washington and Teheran.

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