Opinion - News Analysis   

Ahmadinejad's letter to George Bush

Simon Tisdall

Flat rejection of the offer will be interpreted by Teheran and others as confirmation that the U.S. is using the nuclear issue as a lever for regime change.

THE MAY 8 letter from Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to U.S. President George W. Bush, the first such publicly announced communication since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, may represent a tentative but significant first step towards direct talks. Given the high level of international concern over Iran's nuclear activities and the possible American response to them, that could make it one of the more important missives to land in the White House in recent years.

But it is equally possible that Iran, facing growing diplomatic isolation, is attempting to exploit divisions within the U.S. and the U.N. Security Council over the nuclear issue. Mr. Ahmadinejad's vague but tantalising offer to seek "new solutions" to international problems may stiffen Russian and Chinese opposition to the potentially fateful U.N. resolution the U.S., Britain, and France hope to pass this week.

The Iranians will certainly have noted the lengthening procession of senior Republicans urging the Bush administration to swallow its prejudices, stop working through European proxies, and talk directly to Teheran. John McCain, Mr. Bush's rival for the Republican nomination in 2000 and a likely presidential candidate in 2008, added his voice at the weekend. Direct talks were "an option you probably have to consider," he said.

Richard Lugar, the Republican chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, has proposed that Iran join a dialogue on energy and security with India, China, the U.S. and other countries. It was too soon to press for U.N. sanctions, he told ABC television. "I believe for the moment we ought to cool this one." Mr. Bush has ignored such calls so far, relying in part on the dangled threat of military action to influence Teheran. Limited U.S. talks with Iran on Iraq have yet to begin. But impatience tinged with alarm over the dangers inherent in the impasse is also building in western Europe.

"There is a growing feeling on the European side that the U.S. needs to get involved and broaden the agenda," one diplomat said, adding that the Americans were being privately pressed to change tack. Germany, where opposition to U.S. military action is strongest, has publicly urged talks.

Mr. Bush's formal response to Mr. Ahmadinejad's letter will be crucial. The temptation will be to view it as a sign of weakness and rebuff it, as happened in May 2003 when Teheran proposed unconditional talks. That offer received no response from a White House buoyed by the fall of Baghdad. But Mr. Bush was far stronger, politically and militarily, then than now. Flat rejection will be interpreted by Teheran and others as confirmation that the U.S. is using the nuclear issue as a lever for regime change.

Asked whether the letter signalled a policy shift, a Teheran source said: "When you write a letter to someone, you expect to get a reply. Maybe it's good news." But the situation in Teheran was "extremely political, extremely sensitive." Very little was required to tip it back into confrontation. —

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Pakistan's jihadi problems
India's children: imperilled by hunger
Three steps to mid-course correction
Abandoning the displaced
Ahmadinejad's letter to George Bush
Corrections and clarifications
Exit polls
Vijayakant factor
Hats off!
Disconcerting
Justice in a flat world
Hollow argument
Avoidable deaths
"Evictions now a national crisis"

Copyright © 2006, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu