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Tamil Nadu elections too close to call

Sanjay Kumar, Rajeeva Karandikar, G. Koteshwar Prasad and Yogendra Yadav

Virtual dead-heat, no single party likely to get majority, predictsThe Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll

New Delhi: A virtual dead heat in Tamil Nadu — this is the topline finding of The Hindu -CNN-IBN Poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) between April 1 and 7. However, this does not mean a hung Assembly; it's just that the contest between the two alliances, at this point, is too close to call. The second key finding of the pre-election survey is that no single party is likely to win a majority of the 234 Assembly seats in the May 8 election.

Without precedent

The coming contest in the State appears to be without precedent. The current indications are that it will be the closest election ever fought in Tamil Nadu. It is also likely that the Opposition benches will have respectable numbers for the first time in the Assembly. If voting intentions revealed before the nomination of candidates hold until polling day, no single party will have a majority. This unprecedented situation will not just have important political implications for the formation of the next government. It could transform the nature of Tamil Nadu's politics.

Recovery for AIADMK

If elections had been held between April 1 and April 7, the AIADMK-led alliance would have won 46 per cent of the popular vote as against 44 per cent for the DMK-led front. This means the ruling AIADMK has been able to recover significantly from the total rout in the 2004 Lok Sabha election.

In that election, the DMK had put together a grand coalition, comprising the Congress, the Left parties, the PMK, and the MDMK. The AIADMK had only the BJP as a partner. Compounding the problem was the unpopularity of the AIADMK Government on a number of counts.

Striking performance

The DMK-led alliance, which secured 52 per cent of the popular vote, took all 39 Lok Sabha seats in the State. The AIADMK alliance polled 35 per cent of the vote. To recover from a 17 percentage point deficit and establish a two point lead at the start of the 2006 Assembly elections is a striking performance by the AIADMK.

This is even more so since the DMK's grand alliance has remained more or less intact since 2004. The only significant changes are the BJP parting ways with the AIADMK and the MDMK joining it. The last has helped Ms. Jayalalithaa balance the alliance arithmetic to some extent. But the real change over the last two years has been the dramatic turnaround in the popularity of the AIADMK.

DMK's arithmetic

A significant finding of this pre-election survey is that on its own, the AIADMK is well ahead of the DMK. The DMK's grand alliance — the `arithmetic' — helps it to cover the gap and remain in the electoral race.

Given the clash of the two alliances, no other force looks like getting a significant share of seats. Therefore, the possibility of a hung Assembly, barring a freak result, can be ruled out. The survey indicates that a total of 10 per cent of the popular vote will go to smaller formations and independents outside the two fronts.

The finding is that the BJP and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) will fare very badly with about one per cent each. What is clear is that the BJP owed its votes in recent elections to its partners.

The one significant presence outside the two fronts is the DMDK led by Vijaykant — which may secure as much as five per cent of the popular vote. That is quite an impressive beginning for a party that does not have a recognised symbol. But the vote share of the DMDK, like that of the BJP and the PT, is too small, that is, below the threshold, to yield even a handful of seats.

No robust forecast

The findings of this pre-election survey imply that no robust forecast of seats can be offered, at this juncture, based on this information. The lead of two percentage points is well within the margin of error of this survey. Secondly, about 30 per cent of the respondents are not quite sure of the way they will vote. Thirdly, because of regional variations, it is possible that, despite having a small advantage in terms of vote share, the AIADMK alliance may end up with the same number of seats as its rival. That is why in the judgment of the CSDS team conducting this poll, the 2006 Tamil Nadu Assembly election is too close to call at this stage.

Why too close to call?

There are several reasons for saying that the race is too close to call.

First, the gap of two percentage points between the major alliances is well within the sampling error. A stratified random sample of this kind (a total of 4,781 respondents from 232 locations in 58 Assembly constituencies across the State) is subject to a standard error of one per cent. That is to say, the most scientifically accurate sample — simply because it is a sample and not the whole population — contains the possibility of missing the real picture by two percentage points on either side. So the AIADMK alliance's vote share could be anywhere between 44 and 48 per cent. Similarly, the DMK alliance's share could be anywhere between 42 and 46 per cent. We cannot, therefore, rule out the possibility that the latter's vote share is equal to or even more than that of its rival.

Secondly, the survey revealed that about 30 per cent of the respondents were either unwilling to disclose their voting preferences or were unsure who they would eventually vote for. About 13 per cent did not reveal a preference; six per cent gave a preference but were unsure whether it would remain the same until election day; and another 11 per cent were more or less sure but not absolutely confident of the way they were going to vote a month from then.

Thirdly, the advantage of two percentage points for the AIADMK alliance may not result in an advantage in terms of seats. The votes of the DMK and the PMK are concentrated in areas of strength and, as a result, the seat yield from these areas of strength could compensate for a modest disadvantage in terms of share of-the-overall-vote disadvantage. So, despite a difference in vote share, it could be a virtual tie in terms of seats.

Still the nomination stage

Finally, we are still at the nomination stage. The respondents did not know all their candidates when the survey was conducted. As many as 34 per cent said their voting would be influenced more by the candidate than the party. Besides, Tamil Nadu has a history of `late swings' in the mood of the electorate, most notably during the 1998 Lok Sabha election. The race is too open to be called with any degree of confidence.

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