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A welcome result

As expected, the Kadima party led by Israel's interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has emerged as the single largest formation in the Knesset after the parliamentary elections held on March 28. Surveys of public opinion taken soon after the party was formed in November 2005 had projected that it could capture as many as 42 seats in the 120-member House. Mr. Olmert might not be too disappointed that Kadima could get only 28 seats, considering that it was yet to have an organisational structure in place. It had also to go to the polls without its star attraction, Ariel Sharon, who is in a coma after suffering a stroke in early January. The overall outcome indicates that a majority of Israeli voters have rejected political formations that seek to perpetuate the colonial occupation of Palestinian territories. Likud, which has traditionally been the foremost among them, has lost so much ground that it has been upstaged by a party of Russian immigrants as the main protagonist of the hard Right. The Labour party, which favours an immediate resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians, did reasonably well by winning 20 seats under an untested leader, Amir Peretz. In the lead-up to the election it was widely expected that a Kadima-Labour coalition would form the core of a new government. Although the two parties together do not command a majority, they are likely to secure the support of the Pensioners Party (seven seats) and the 10 Arab members of parliament. Additional support could come from the left-wing Meretz (four seats) as well as the religious parties Shas (13 seats) and United Torah Judaism (six seats). Such a coalition is likely to remain stable even if the religious parties decide to break away later.

Given the broadly anti-occupation mandate, Mr. Olmert can have no excuse for shying away from his campaign promise that his Government will close many of the Israeli colonies in the West Bank. Even assuming this plan is carried out, only about 60,000 settlers of the estimated 400,000 living in the West Bank will be evicted, and about 8 per cent of the territory captured in the 1967 war will still remain under occupation. The boundary wall that causes an almost apartheid-like separation between Israel and the Palestinian territories will also stay. For all that, the withdrawal could still be a significant move towards the winding up of an unjust and unsustainable occupation. Given Kadima's programme, it is indeed fortuitous that this party will not be able to rule without the support of Labour. Mr. Peretz, who wants the portfolios of either defence or finance, is likely to be a powerful member of the cabinet. He could be in a strong position to urge that withdrawal is carried out through a process of negotiations with the Palestinian Authority rather than unilaterally. Mr. Peretz may also press for the revival of an offer made by previous Labour governments that Israel could transfer some of its own territory to compensate for the land it wishes to annex.

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