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Increasing pressure to withdraw

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's assessment that foreign troops could start withdrawing by the middle of 2006 might appear plausible at the surface. The occupation forces could pull out of pockets that have been largely left undisturbed by the insurgency. However, if Mr. Talabani meant that an end to the occupation was in sight, he is likely to be proved wrong. The Governments of the United States and the United Kingdom, which contribute the bulk of the military forces, have not changed their basic position on withdrawal: their troops will leave only when Iraqis are ready to take charge of security. At this point, just one of the 80 battalions the post-Saddam army plans to raise is up to full strength. While soldiers of this army have taken part in counter-insurgency operations, they have never acted independently. In every major action, they have provided little more than marginal support to the foreign forces. Given this situation, it was mystifying that British Prime Minister Tony Blair endorsed Mr. Talabani's assessment. There is no guarantee that, once the foreign forces leave, resistance fighters will not rush into the Shia-dominated southern regions, which have remained relatively quiet. The insurgents, who have held their own against highly skilled military formations, will not hesitate to take on poorly trained and ill-motivated Iraqi troops. Recent revelations that Shia personnel of the Interior Ministry ran a clandestine jail where they tortured Sunnis will further infuriate the resistance fighters. Sunni hatred for the Shias has already manifested itself in several bomb attacks, such as the November 18 strike that killed more than 75 people.

Although critics of President George Bush are aware that civil war could break out in Iraq once foreign forces withdraw, they have ratcheted up the pressure on the administration to take such a course. Senate Democrats were not able to push through a resolution requiring the administration to set a deadline for a withdrawal. That hardly counted as a victory for Mr. Bush since the Republicans blocked their rivals only by passing a resolution of their own. From now on, the administration will have to provide quarterly reports that will help the Senate assess whether conditions are favourable for a withdrawal. With Congressional elections due in 2006, the calls for a pull-out are likely to get stronger — especially as a majority of Americans are now opposed to the war, according to public opinion polls. The Arab League has provided the Bush administration with a faint glimmer of hope: it intends to convene a meeting in Cairo of all the Iraqi factions in a desperate attempt to evolve a consensus. The pan-Arab body pulled off a near miracle 16 years ago when it persuaded all the factions involved in the Lebanon civil war to sign on to the Taif Agreement. However, the ball game in Iraq seems strikingly different.

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