The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : Awaiting a good monsoon

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Monday, May 09, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

Awaiting a good monsoon

In the age-old march of the seasons, the searing heat of May is quenched only when the southwest monsoon arrives in early June. For the farmers of India, the monsoon has the power to decide, as it has had for millennia, whether they will celebrate a bountiful harvest or suffer hardship. Even though agriculture plays a less dominant role than it did, say, 30 years ago in the Indian economy, a drought still has a direct impact on economic growth. After two countrywide droughts in close proximity — 2002 experienced one of the worst droughts in a century and 2004 saw a second one — there is understandable anxiety about how this monsoon will turn out. In April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that the forthcoming monsoon would be only two per cent less than the long-term average. That would classify the monsoon as `normal,' which is defined as within 10 per cent of the average. However, it is sobering to remember that IMD predicted a normal monsoon for both 2002 and 2004. So has its monsoon prediction become a form of roulette? IMD has been issuing long-range forecasts for the monsoon since 1886. Initially, the extent of Himalayan snow cover served as a simple predictor. Subsequently, statistical modelling was introduced, with various ocean and atmospheric parameters being checked for their effectiveness as predictors.

Scientists now find that IMD's operational statistical models have not demonstrated any significant predictive skills. Moreover, the correlation between parameters that can act as predictors and monsoon rainfall has become weak in recent years. It follows that predictions dependent on such linkages can go awry. It is heartening, therefore, that the IMD prediction for the coming monsoon tallies with that of R.N. Iyengar of the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. Instead of using predictors, his new statistical method looks for patterns in the past monsoons to make a forecast for the next rainy season. Dr. Iyengar correctly predicted a deficient monsoon last year, even if he underestimated the extent of the shortfall. Whatever the predictions, the behaviour of the monsoon may well be decided by how sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean evolve in the coming months. According to IMD, a sharp and unexpected rise in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific in July 2004 suppressed rainfall activity over India, causing last year's drought. That abnormal warming has largely subsided and neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next few months. When a computer model simulating atmospheric processes was run with the sea surface temperatures of March persisting in the following months, it suggested deficient rains. However, when the model was run with the sea surface temperatures predicted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the United States, which showed a considerable cooling down of the waters of the eastern Indian Ocean off Sumatra, it indicated above average rainfall during the monsoon. All of India must be hoping this happens.

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