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Tuesday, Apr 12, 2005

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Republicans face a problem

By Peter Preston

The Republicans are in trouble without an anointed successor to George W. Bush.

THE MOST pulsating polls of the moment are those that measure a re-elected George W. Bush's popularity, and thus the "dividend" he intended to spend on "being Bush." Strange news: there is no dividend. And Mr. Bush, at this point of the second term, is the least popular President of the U.S. since World War II.

Let us (from Gallup's March ratings) put figures on that claim. Harry Truman in March 1949 stood at 57 per cent approval. Dwight Eisenhower in 1957 had 65 per cent, Lyndon Johnson in 1965 a full 69 per cent. Richard Nixon (1973) retained 57 per cent. In more recent times, Ronald Reagan (1985) held at 56 per cent and Bill Clinton (1997) at 59 per cent. Last month's Bush score was 45 per cent. This month it has crawled up a point or two, but still runs flat bottom of the pack.

How can this possibly be? Well, issues coagulate. Only one American in three is happy about the state of the economy. Petrol prices are taking a terrible toll — and connecting with the continuing toll in Iraq. A U.S. majority (52 per cent) now regrets going to war. Mr. Bush's showpiece social-security plan has opened and closed like Michael Frayn's Democracy on Broadway.

But one thing seeps into another. The Terri Schiavo tragedy — born-again Republicans on Capitol Hill rushing round to tell hard-working doctors and Florida judges what to do — did not play well.

And, whether by osmosis or accident, dominant House figures like Tom DeLay, the majority leader, are coming up not too clean as investigative reporters get to work. There is a sense of grim, debilitating business as usual.

Where is the momentum of last November and of a clear victory that laid doubts about 2000's narrow squeak to rest? There is no momentum, because — not so deep down — there is no future for this administration. Democrats, in defeat and returning hope, can hit the trail again without raising too much dust: John Edwards and John Kerry are wending their ways separately this time, Hillary Clinton pursues ambition along a dedicated path. But Republicans do not know which way to go.

Will there be a Bush inheritance come 2008, a fat, happy slice of America that likes big government, big deficits and rightwing tub-thumping? Or will the Republicans split open wide as they ponder the micro-management of ordinary people's lives?

The crucial point is that every previous modern second-term President has had his succession in order as he settled down to four more years. The Vice-President was there to be anointed. The flickering flame had a designated carrier.

Only Mr. Bush lacks that sense of continuity.In short, George W. Bush, the alleged master of the world, has failed to get his front parlours and waiting rooms organised. And already that failure begins to drag him down. Get your succession policy wrong in a chattering world of personality-charged politics and nothing goes right. It is the blaze beginning to consume France as Jacques Chirac falters. It is also the fact behind the smoke of the past few days in Britain. —

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