The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : CREATING A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

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Friday, Dec 31, 2004

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Opinion - Editorials

CREATING A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

IF THERE WERE doubts before, the tsunami of December 26, 2004 has swept them away. Over 100,000 people in a number of Asian countries have been killed by the monstrous waves, millions have been made homeless, and the economic cost of the destruction has been staggering. Unlike in the Pacific Ocean, tsunamis may happen only once or twice in a century in the Indian Ocean. But recent events have amply demonstrated that once is more than enough. Not having an effective warning system in place is therefore no longer an option. One great advantage is that countries in and around the Pacific have been developing and improving a tsunami warning system over the past four decades, and an international organisation exists to coordinate these efforts. In consequence, automated seismic stations can quickly pinpoint an earthquake that might set off a tsunami; gauges that measure changes in sea-level can verify whether a tsunami is indeed on its way; and sophisticated computer models can help establish where the tsunami is headed and which places are most vulnerable to its onslaught. Joining the international tsunami warning system will give access to all this accumulated expertise and technology. But the methods developed for the Pacific will need to be adapted to the conditions in other oceans.

The first step must be to identify danger spots where future earthquakes likely to spawn tsunamis might occur. The latest tsunami as well as earlier ones that occurred in 1941 and 1881 originated from earthquakes off the coast of Sumatra and around the nearby Andaman and Nicobar islands. But these may not be the sole problem areas. The tsunami of 1945 struck India's west coast and was generated by an earthquake off the coast of Mekhran in present day Pakistan. Although that earthquake was much less powerful than the one of December 26, the geological structures in the Mekhran area are capable of setting off more powerful — and hence more dangerous — earthquakes and tsunamis, say experts. There may well be other danger spots and a detailed survey for seismic hazard assessment all along the coast is the only way to identify them. The tsunami warning system can then be configured to keep watch on all these problem areas.

But generating reliable information about an oncoming tsunami is just the first task the warning system must perform. Such information will serve no purpose if it does not spur action to move vulnerable communities to safer places before the tsunami hits. Fortunately, India's well-developed space programme has already established 250 cyclone-warning receivers that can be activated via satellite; these can be used for tsunami warning as well and more can be deployed if needed. But a `run for your life' sort of warning will only trigger panic and chaos. The real need is for procedures akin to the detailed emergency evacuation plans that all Indian nuclear plants have, which are meticulously tested with evacuation exercises twice a year. Similar drills have to be mandated for each locality that might face a tsunami. Community education is vital so that people know exactly what they should do when the warning is sounded. It is conceivable that the evacuation procedures might have to cope with situations where the warning comes minutes before the tsunami strikes, as has happened in Japan. The biggest challenge, however, will be ensuring that the entire system — from the initial detection of the tsunami to the final evacuation — works flawlessly even though it might be called into action only once or twice in a century. As a moral imperative, India needs to commit itself immediately to such a high-grade warning system, and find the resources for it, in memory of the thousands who died for want of such a system.

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