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Tuesday, Aug 24, 2004

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Japan and the subcontinent

By P. S. Suryanarayana

The Japanese Foreign Minister's recent visit to India and Pakistan has led to some finetuning of policy positions.

FOR THE present, the realists in Japan's foreign policy establishment have prevailed over the idealists in shaping its attitude towards "nuclear" India. Tokyo's perception of India is as "a major country which plays an essential role for the peace, stability and prosperity of the Asian region and the international community as a whole."

In contrast, the specific issues of checking terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction have determined Japan's positive equation with Pakistan. The latest visit to Pakistan and India by the Japanese Foreign Minister, Yoriko Kawaguchi, is illustrative of these nuances, which she indeed outlined in her written answers to questions ahead of her tour.

Yutaka Kawashima, a seasoned Japanese diplomat-turned-policy analyst, recently underlined an India-specific trend in Tokyo as follows: "Particularly notable is the emergence of a new school of thought in Japan that stresses the importance to Japan of having better relations with India or Russia as a counter-force to China." The "strategy," in his view "is a product of the end of the Cold War, and it reflects the sense of uncertainty and anxiety among the Japanese about China's future course, given the country's sheer size and robust economic growth as well as the fact that a considerable portion of the fruit of that growth is allocated for defence."

This perspective came into focus, as part of the debate on realpolitik versus the idealist approach in Japan, after the fallout of India's Pokhran II nuclear detonations of 1998 gradually dissipated. Ms. Kawaguchi, for her part, has now taken care to turn the spotlight on India's intrinsic worth as "a major power" rather than on its perceived potential as a counterforce to China for purposes of Japan's calculus.

Of the three main points of agreement reached during her talks with the Indian leaders, particularly the External Affairs Minister, K. Natwar Singh, the most conspicuous is the one relating to the willingness of the two countries to support each other's candidature for the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.

Until almost the beginning of Ms. Kawaguchi's talks in New Delhi on August 12, this issue was not fully sorted out within the Japanese camp, enquiries indicate. The disarmament lobby and the pacifists in Tokyo's policy circles were then holding forth on the importance of the distinction between Japan's credentials for permanent membership as "a non-nuclear country" and India's status as a player possessing nuclear weapons (a factor that could have implications for the existing permanent members).

The more critical aspects of the sub-text of the new Japan-India understanding, which now remain to be settled during further discussions, are just as significant as the basic accord on reciprocal support. These relate to the questions whether Japan (as also India) is inclined to work for the abolition of the "veto rights" of the existing five permanent members and whether, in an alternative scenario, Tokyo and New Delhi will be prepared to back each other for their candidature as veto-empowered permanent members.

Besides being judgment calls, the answers to these simple posers, with profound implications for any new global order, will depend on the larger international debate on the overall reform of the Security Council as also the present U.N. system itself.

As seen from Tokyo's standpoint, the agreement to form a Japan-India working group on counter-terrorism and their readiness to cooperate on non-proliferation issues, including that relating to the "means of delivery of weapons of mass destruction," are logical corollaries to the new spirit of understanding. With Tokyo no longer asserting itself on the international economic stage, with notions of an imminent Pax Nipponica (Ezra F. Vogel's predictive phrase), the latest move to set up a joint study group to strengthen Japan-India economic relations is welcome.

At the conclusion of Ms. Kwaguchi's talks in Islamabad, including a discussion with the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, on August 11, Japan dramatically recognised "the vital and indispensable role that Pakistan plays as the frontline state against new threats such as terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

Prior to these discussions, Ms. Kawaguchi underlined that Japan "values" Islamabad's role in the fight against terrorism. Responding to the disclosures about A.Q. Khan's proliferation network and Islamabad's suspected role in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme in Japan's neighbourhood, she noted "Pakistan has denied its involvement in this matter." Japan would, nevertheless "urge Pakistan to address the non-proliferation issue even more rigorously" through the "provision of relevant information and prevention of recurrence of such incidents."

By embracing Pakistan, in the end, as a "frontline state" on non-proliferation issues, Japan has opted for a diplomatic engagement rather than estrangement. Whether or not this, too, is reflective of any ascendance of the realists in Tokyo, the relevant views of the U.S., Japan's ally, can be seen as a factor at work.

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