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Wednesday, Apr 07, 2004

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SHIAS JOIN THE RESISTANCE

THE OCCUPATION OF Iraq by the United States and its few allies has become increasingly untenable with the Shia community in the country joining the armed uprising against the foreign forces. The Coalition Provisional Authority, the instrumentality with which the occupation is administered, prefers to characterise the violent clashes between foreign troops and a militia loyal to Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr as nothing more than isolated and easily controllable incidents. However, the Shias are not likely to quieten down soon, as more than 60 members of the community have already been killed in clashes in Baghdad, Kufa and several other towns in southern Iraq. They may well be further inflamed if the Authority carries out its threat to arrest Mr. Al Sadr. Other political and paramilitary organisations, representing Sunnis as well as Shias, are understood to have contacted the firebrand cleric. An occupation force already under considerable pressure from guerrillas will find itself in a dire situation if the insurgents act upon Mr. Al Sadr's instructions that they should emulate Hamas and Hizbollah in the efforts to "intimidate their enemies." While Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and other senior clerics do not approve of the politics or methods of the Sadr-led militia, they might not be able to stop the masses from rallying to its cause.

The relationship between the Shias and the occupation forces was far from smooth even before this phase of violence. Washington might have thought that it was entitled to the gratitude of Iraq's majority community that is well-positioned to take over power when, and if, the occupation ends. However, the Shias take an entirely different view of the sequence of events. They have not forgotten that the U.S. had at first encouraged them to rise against the regime of Saddam Hussein at the end of the 1991 war and then failed to come to their rescue when the Ba'athists took brutal measures to crush the revolt. The Shias' scepticism about American motives is reinforced by the perception that their liberation was not the main objective that the invaders sought to achieve in 2003, all the propaganda notwithstanding. The manner in which the Authority controlled developments after the invasion has exacerbated rather than allayed Shia misgivings. The community has reservations about the draft interim constitution and has reason to be displeased with the procedures adopted for setting up an interim government that will take office before June 30. The Authority has already hand-picked nominees to head the health, education, defence and intelligence ministries and is likely to constitute the rest of the Cabinet in similar fashion. While a Shia is likely to be appointed Prime Minister, the community will not have much reason to be satisfied. They and other Iraqis are aware that the Authority will continue to wield real power even after a nominal transfer.

The occupying powers will come under greater pressure if the various elements of the Iraqi resistance forge links with one another. That denouement, once unthinkable, does not now appear remote for a couple of reasons. One, Sunnis are already present in the Sadr militia's camp and two, the Shias have not turned against the other sect even when members of their community were killed in the several suicide bombings that have taken place. Sections of Sunni militants have, in fact, tried to keep alive the chances of unity between the two communities by trying to ensure that their resistance movement was not taken over by sectarian extremists. Iraq's turmoil is far from over.

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SHIAS JOIN THE RESISTANCE

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