The Hindu : After Shimla

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Monday, Jul 14, 2003

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After Shimla

By K.K. Katyal

The Congress has sought to do away with a self-imposed handicap and deny the BJP the advantage of the exclusive use of the coalition strategy.

THE CONGRESS has committed itself — officially and formally — to coalitional politics, confirming the indications available from its camp of late. The immediate implications of this decision have evoked widespread interest, but the long-term pointers, equally important, have not attracted due attention. Its willingness to enter into pre-poll and post-poll alliances with others — secular, like-minded parties and groups — amounts to recognition, belated though, of the irrevocability of the coalitional pattern in India. Obviously, a return of the single-party dispensation is considered out of question in the foreseeable future. At Shimla, the Congress took only half a step, but there was little doubt about its significance.

One wonders whether the Congress leadership was sufficiently aware of the mighty changes in political dynamics, following the emergence of new social identities. During the freedom struggle and even afterwards, the party was a coalition unto itself. Associated with it were diverse sections — representing regional, religious, ethnic and caste loyalties. Till 1967, it benefited from the momentum generated by its past role. But later, its hold came to be related to its performance. The record being poor, both at the Centre and in the States, there was no escape from a steady decline of its influence. The party would have been ousted from power earlier, had this process not been artificially arrested, first by the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 and later of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991.

Though the Congress remained in power at the Centre till 1996, barring the brief Janata Party interlude, it had ceased to be a coalition of various interests. Some of its traditional supporters either organised themselves autonomously — like the Other Backward Classes under Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party or the Dalits under the banner of the BSP, headed by Kanshi Ram and Mayawati — or moved away to other parties (`upper' classes to the BJP, to cite one instance). However, it continued to revel in past glory. This contradiction, hopefully, will be resolved after Shimla. The decision there was essentially based on considerations of power politics but it did imply recognition of the changed dynamics. The informal coalition had ended with the decline of the Congress: its place had to be taken by a formal coalition (or coalitions). The Congress has sought to do away with a self-imposed handicap and deny the BJP the advantage of the exclusive use of the coalition strategy. It will now be a case of competitive coalition-making.

There is no need to cry over the demise of single-party rule. True, the coalition experiment has not been very smooth — it has been marred by bumpiness, pressures and counter-pressures, even blackmail on the part of constituents, some of them exercising influence disproportionate to their size and standing: decision-making processes have been delayed, at times resulting in compromises, not conducive to the health of the nation.

But there were at least three distinct positive developments which should augur well for the country. For one thing, coalitional politics helped consolidate federalism, ridding it of some of the strains of the past. The cooption of regional parties in the power structure — there being no escape from such an arrangement — helped induce a sense of responsibility in them. This was particularly useful when old mechanisms such as zonal councils and the National Integration Council were defunct. Did not the number of clashes between the Centre and the regions come down? This was a refreshing departure from the situations witnessed, for instance, in Tamil Nadu, where anti-north and anti-Centre sentiments took a difficult turn in the past.

Two, there was a check on the rashness in the Centre's dealing with the States. It was not easy to take over the administration of a State under Article 356. The fact of the ruling party being in a minority in the Rajya Sabha also contributed to this healthy development. Three, it helped establish a balance — in a small measure though — in the relationship between the ruling side and the Opposition at the Centre. This did not mean that confrontation between the two was any less fierce but the head of the coalition, it was clear, showed greater deference to the Leader of the Opposition than had been the case with the single-party Government. The role of this functionary was institutionalised as never before. The present incumbent, Sonia Gandhi, Congress chief, was shown all the courtesies that went with this position. Then there were new norms, providing for consultation with the Opposition head in the matter of constitutional appointments — the Chief Vigilance Commissioner, for instance.

Quite an advance from the period of the Congress' monopoly of power at the Centre when the presence of the Opposition was hardly noticed and the demand for according a formal status to its leaders scornfully rejected. Ironically, the Opposition got recognition when the Congress was out of power — and its Y.B. Chavan was the first formal Leader of the Opposition.

The half step taken by the Congress at Shimla towards coalitional politics was evident at various stages of deliberations. First, in an observation by Ms. Gandhi, in her valedictory address, that the party had an "open mind" on pre-poll alliances, and, later, in the appeal contained in the main document, Shimla "sankalp", to all "progressive thinking men and women, institutions and political movements,'' sharing the party's concerns and vision, to join hands in the ideological and electoral battle ahead. It was a clear departure from the earlier stand — "of going it alone" — which came in the way of the non-BJP sections providing an alternative in 1999, after the defeat of the Vajpayee Government in the Lok Sabha. Ms. Gandhi's claim of support of 272 members — the bare majority — was contested by Samajwadi Party's Mr. Yadav and others, who were included in her tally. This unilateral approach was intended to be given up now in favour of cooperation with other anti-BJP forces.

The party, however, was silent on the second half step — how it proposed to translate the new resolve into reality. This will not be an easy job and may well find the Congress in an acute predicament. Among the potential allies are those who had eaten into the Congress support base. Who would accommodate whom at whose expense would be a ticklish issue.

The Left parties, in any case, would not join the Congress in a pre-poll alliance, apart from other factors, because of sharp divergences on economic policies. Which means mutual accommodation will not be possible in the Left strongholds of West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. After the elections, however, it would be a different story. The main concern then would be to keep the BJP out of power.

In sharp contrast to its ambiguity on operationalising the new line on coalition, the Shimla document was categorical on the role of the Congress in possible alliances and the place of Ms. Gandhi. The alliances, it was made clear, would be led by the party and Ms. Gandhi would be the leader. The idea, obviously, was to pre-empt situations of the type that arose in 1999. Then, the non-Congress groups among the BJP opponents were not prepared either to accept the primacy of the Congress or the leadership of Ms. Gandhi. The Congress did not take kindly to such ideas. It would not like to leave anything to chance now. "We now seek the support of the people," the party document said, "to bring India back on the path of progress with the Congress under the leadership of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi."

According to the party's assessment, this would send a clear signal to potential allies. It expects the supportive sentiments of the Bihar supremo, Laloo Prasad Yadav, to catch on. The Samajwadi Party, once a bitter opponent, could well soften its stand because of the compulsions of Uttar Pradesh politics and Sharad Pawar's NCP, which had left the Congress on the issue of Ms. Gandhi's foreign origin, may well dilute its opposition.

Will the projection by the NDA and the Congress of their candidates for the Prime Minister's post take the form of a Vajpayee versus Sonia contest? Up to a point, yes. The electoral campaign will get this new twist for the first time. But who gains from it is the subject of rival claims.

It will be a pity, however, if the focus on personalities serves to push under the carpet major issues, political, economic and those relating to development, defence and security. Let us hope that the electorate, the ultimate sovereign, will not let the leaders and parties obfuscate issues.

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