The Hindu : Waiting in the wings

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Sunday, Jun 08, 2003

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Waiting in the wings

In Tamil Nadu, while the AIADMK is in no hurry to firm up any alliance, the DMK wants to be with the NDA at least till the next parliamentary polls, says V.Jayanth.

IF THE BJP and the Congress set the stage for alliances at the national level, the two regional rivals — ruling AIADMK and DMK — dictate political alignments in Tamil Nadu. It is an interesting setting, of new equations and formations, that awaits the State. The AIADMK and the Congress fought the 2001 Assembly elections together while the DMK was leading the State-level NDA. But now, the AIADMK has distanced itself from the Congress, enjoys a cordial relationship with the BJP, but consciously wants to remain "equidistant" for the present.

The DMK, on the other hand, has virtually severed its ties with the BJP at the State level, while remaining part of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. And its president, M. Karunanidhi, has clarified that alliances or electoral adjustments are made only during elections and that his party will make its decision at the "right time".

Till a week ago, the Congress was looking to lead a third front and offer a "viable alternative" to the two Dravidian parties. It was harping on the "restoration of Kamaraj rule" by 2006, when the next Assembly elections are due. But the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi's offer in Srinagar of forging alliances at the national and State levels seems to have negated that build-up.

This has certainly gladdened the hearts of one section of Congressmen, which sees no point in going it alone, or forging a third front, if the party wants to win enough seats in Tamil Nadu to form a government at the Centre.

Amid this political churning, the former Union Minister and a staunch Rajiv Gandhi loyalist, P. Chidambaram, had an interesting meeting with Ms. Gandhi in New Delhi last month.

Mr. Chidambaram is leader of the Congress Jananayaka Peravai, which broke away from the late G.K. Moopanar's Tamil Maanila Congress on the eve of the 2001 elections.

The meeting sparked speculation of his return to the Congress and some leaders even spoke of a merger rally on July 15 - the birth centenary of Kamaraj. However, Mr. Chidambaram denies all talk of merger. A meeting there was and Tamil Nadu politics was discussed. That's about all. Welcoming Ms. Gandhi's Srinagar declaration, he says "time will dictate the need for a new leadership and an alternative to the two Dravidian parties".

As for the DMK, it seems to be on the horns of a dilemma. While staying as part of the NDA at the Centre till perhaps the next parliamentary election seems "politically imperative and expedient", building bridges with secular parties such as the Congress and the Left to take on the AIADMK regime is its first priority. The party is committed to the Prime Minister's leadership and remains grateful to the Centre's help in the treatment of its leader and Union Minister (without portfolio), Murasoli Maran — recovering in a Houston hospital. But the Left parties and the Congress insist that the DMK must walk out of the NDA if it wants to build an anti-AIADMK front. The DMK will have to wait for an appropriate occasion or a provocation to do that.

The AIADMK, meanwhile, seems confident of its "hold on the masses" and is in no hurry to firm up any alliance. When the time comes, any electoral understanding will be on the AIADMK's terms, which wants to contest at least 30 Lok Sabha seats this time round. While the party wants its leader, Jayalalithaa, to play a lead role in national politics, she certainly plans to emerge as a "key player" in the next Lok Sabha to influence government formation.

Most of the Opposition parties in the State are predicating their plans on the belief that the AIADMK is on a "losing wicket" and that the people are "disenchanted" with the Government. They are also eagerly awaiting the Supreme Court verdict on the Tansi land deal case, which can influence the future of the State's politics.

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