The Hindu : Caste — the casting vote

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Sunday, Jun 08, 2003

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Caste — the casting vote

The art of coalitions has inevitably developed into the science of sewing viable caste equations in this Mandal-oriented State of Bihar. K. Balchand takes a look.

AS, PERHAPS, a veritable part of the Laloo Prasad Yadav-dominated political landscape, the art of coalitions has inevitably developed into the science of sewing viable caste equations in this Mandal-oriented State of Bihar.

The catch, however, lies in the fact that for the two prime coalitions — one led by the BJP and the other by the RJD — alliance cohesion becomes a relevant factor only in electoral strategies for the Lok Sabha polls. But when it comes to the Assembly elections, the equations lose their importance and have to be reconfigured.

The electoral arrangement for the next year's Lok Sabha election might in all probability be the same as witnessed in 1999, and, yet, the Assembly election might not be any different from what obtained in 2000 when both the coalitions showed little purpose of unity.

The BJP-led cartel has not yet overcome its teething problems. With the division of the State (into Bihar and Jharkhand), the BJP is faced with the threat of being reduced, much like the Congress, to a non-entity: both are totally dependent on their smaller allies to project themselves as serious contenders at the Centre.

Compulsions of coalition and caste forced the Railway Minister and Samata Party leader, Nitish Kumar, and the former Union Minister and LJP president, Ram Vilas Paswan, to join hands with the BJP in the first instance. Having parted company with Mr. Yadav, Mr. Kumar and Mr. Paswan had to learn to live with their reservations about the BJP. By the same token, the BJP could ill-afford to even moot the possibility of going it alone in the State.

Save for the traditional Bania votes, the BJP has been able to capture only the `upper caste' votes of the Congress. Its precariousness was palpable recently when the Samata Party was on the brink of a split, particularly after Mr. Paswan walked out of the NDA.

The BJP feared further isolation in the event of the Defence Minister, George Fernandes, and the Railway Minister going their separate ways. It was no surprise that Mr. Fernandes yielded ground to Mr. Kumar so as not to alienate the Kurmi-Koeri voters. Mr. Kumar too is caught in the caste calculations. It is imperative for him to be part of a larger parliamentary group to retain his place and stature in the Union Cabinet. He eventually considered it prudent not to be left with Kurmi and Koeri votes, both intermediary backward castes.

Mr. Paswan, the third satrap, obviously suffers from the same handicap as Mr. Kumar. For whatever reasons he quit the NDA, Mr. Paswan intends to tread the rough path chosen by Mr. Kumar to assert his vote-bank, irrespective of whether or not he gains in the immediate future.

In alliance with the NCP and the CPI, Mr. Paswan has formed a third front which still has a long way to go. The presence of such a front, for whatever it is worth, will be to the RJD's advantage.

The RJD is also seeking to exploit the dissidence in the Samata in a bid to endear itself to the Maithil Brahmins. It had earlier split the JD (U) to strengthen its tally in the Assembly and assert itself as the true representative of the Yadavs and Muslims.

Much of the RJD's anxiety to secure the Chief Minister, Rabri Devi's status stems from the noises that the local Congress leaders create every now and then by demanding a review of the alliance. Mr. Yadav has little to look forward to from the Congress, except that he sees no harm in having a national party for a friend.

On the other hand, the Congress alone stands to gain from the association — some MPs for itself from Bihar and the RJD's support in the Lok Sabha should it have a chance to form the next government.

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