The Hindu : Difficult times ahead for Waghela

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, May 26, 2003

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Other States - Gujarat

Difficult times ahead for Waghela

By Manas Dasgupta

AHMEDABAD May 25. Though inconsequential, its defeat in the Songadh Assembly byelection has come as a major shock to the Gujarat Congress and may have made the position of its president, Shankarsinh Waghela, more difficult.

It is the first time in 50 years that the party has tasted defeat in this tribal-dominated south Gujarat constituency. Considered a Congress citadel, Songadh had provided the lead to the party most of the time in the parliamentary elections as well.

Even at the height of the BJP wave, Songadh voted for the Congress in the 1995, 1998 and December 2002 elections, and was considered a safe bet for the party in the byelection caused by the death immediately after the elections of the Congress nominee. As admitted by Mr. Waghela, Songadh proved that the BJP's communal card was successful.

The alleged forcible conversions of the tribals into Christianity had become a major factor in the tribal belt in south Gujarat in the last few elections and though the facts and figures do not support such allegations, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad had been exploiting the situation to the hilt benefiting the BJP.

The Congress' rout in the December Assembly elections had considerably weakened Mr. Waghela's position in the State unit which had looked upon him as the "saviour" in the face of the communal onslaught unleashed by the BJP under the Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. Mr. Waghela's appointment a few months before the Assembly poll replacing the senior leader and Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, Amarsinh Chaudhary, was welcomed by almost all sections in the party.

It was thought that he would be able to "match" Mr. Modi's rhetorics but the poll outcome showed that he had been outsmarted. A hush-hush campaign against his leadership after the elections came out in the open when Mr. Chaudhary took a few of his supporters to Delhi last week to plead before the national president, Sonia Gandhi, and other central leaders for Mr. Waghela's removal.

Though not many in the party support Mr. Chaudhary's plea for re-appointment as the president most of them except members of his own erstwhile Rashtriya Janata Party seem to be favouring a change of leadership.

Mr. Chaudhary's move has created new equations in the State unit dividing the erstwhile Janata Dal (Gujarat) group. While one of its prominent leaders, Urmilaben Patel, wife of the former Chief Minister, Chimanbhai Patel, is supporting Mr. Chaudhary if her own claim for the post was not acceptable to the high command, most others in the group are opposed to her and Mr. Chaudhary's candidature. They have agreed to be guided by Ahmed Patel, former AICC treasurer and political adviser to Ms. Gandhi, on the choice of Mr. Waghela's successor.

The party sources here believe that by removing the AICC general secretary, Kamal Nath, as in-charge of Gujarat affairs, Ms. Gandhi had given enough indication of her disappointment over the outcome of the Assembly elections. Though at that time she discouraged Mr. Waghela to resign on "moral grounds", Mr. Chaudhary's move created enough doubts in the minds of the central leadership about his ability to lead the party in the crucial Parliamentary elections.

The outcome of the Songadh byelection may further strengthen the doubt, particularly after Mr. Waghela had claimed that after five months in power Mr. Modi had created more enemies than friends in the ruling party and among the people. The BJP's win in the Assembly elections was followed by its impressive victories in municipal and some district and taluka panchayat elections culminating in the Songadh byelection proving that Mr. Modi was still going strong and the Congress would have to break new grounds if it is to pose any challenge to him and the BJP.

With the Parliamentary elections round the corner, it is unlikely that Ms. Gandhi will give Mr. Waghela another chance. However, the search for a suitable replacement for him and the party's pre-occupation in the elections in the four Congress-ruled States later this year may keep Mr. Waghela in office for some more time.

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